Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS St. Louis, MO

248 
WWUS53 KLSX 262010
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOC055-262030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-150726T2030Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 310 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHERRYVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHERRYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9131 3792 9131 3793 9121 3770 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 264DEG 16KT 3783 9126 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BYRD

370 
WWUS53 KLSX 262015
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOC055-262025-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-150726T2030Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS AND IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3770 9131 3792 9131 3793 9121 3770 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 272DEG 8KT 3783 9125 

$$

BYRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, SO LET FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON. SEEING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI, SO COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND
105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MO. OTHERWISE, WITH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

BYRD
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON'T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY'S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
602 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS CONTINUED
THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL MIDDAY.

THE RETURN OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ACROSS PARTS OF MID MISSOURI
WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 105 DEGREES...AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 7PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT....PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING 110 DEGREES
IN A FEW LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY RAINFALLS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

TRUETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1015 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOZ035-036-261600-
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-
1015 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RALLS AND NORTHWESTERN
PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1015 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SPAULDING...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW LONDON...CENTER...FRANKFORD...RENSSELAER...SPAULDING...
SPENCERBURG AND THE LANDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9118 3937 9125 3951 9171 3953 9171
      3968 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1515Z 286DEG 25KT 3958 9160

BYRD