Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS St. Louis, MO

July 13, 2015Pike County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2015, 6:55 PM CDT for Pike County, Illinois. It was in force for 22 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2015, 6:55 PM CDT (23:55 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2015, 7:17 PM CDT
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Pike County, IL

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 13, 6:55 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 61	2 Ne Pittsfield, IL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 13, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2535 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -92 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1016 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.9
Supercell composite: 10.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

131 
WUUS53 KLSX 132355
SVRLSX
ILC149-140045-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0153.150713T2355Z-150714T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 654 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NAPLES TO NEAR PITTSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO 
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PITTSFIELD...ATLAS...INDEPENDENCE...BEDFORD...MONTEZUMA...
  MARTINSBURG...NEBO...MILTON...PEARL...DETROIT...EL DARA...
  FLORENCE...TIME...BEECREEK...SUMMER HILL...ROCKPORT AND NEW
  HARTFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS ADAMS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PIKE 
COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
ST LOUIS .

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9061 3954 9057 3953 9058 3951 9058
      3946 9061 3939 9062 3939 9063 3951 9106
      3968 9097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 287DEG 52KT 3976 9063 3958 9072 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TILLY

1 follow-up statement

043 
WWUS53 KLSX 140017
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
717 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

ILC149-140027-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-150714T0045Z/
PIKE IL-
717 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS CANCELLED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3964 9061 3954 9057 3953 9058 3951 9058
      3946 9061 3939 9062 3939 9063 3951 9106
      3968 9097
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 287DEG 52KT 3967 9026 3949 9035 

$$

TILLY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 5:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 5:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
534 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON.  HEAT INDICES WERE MAINLY FROM 100 TO 110,
TOPPING OUT AT 113 AT LAMBERT FIELD.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MO ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CAP AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN WI SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KS.  CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AND THE CAP GRADUALLY
WEAKENS.   WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST
CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT.  SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MO LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT ITS DOMINANCE OVER OUR REGION
WILL WAX AND WANE AT TIMES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD
FRONT.  HOWEVER...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TOO LITTLE TOO
LATE FOR MANY AREAS WITH W-SW WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF
THE NIGHT BEFORE...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE DECENT SUNSHINE RETURN.
MOS TEMPS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH A RETURN OF MID
90S TEMPS AND COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY FOR THE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN COU/JEF AND STL METRO.  HAVE EXTENDED IN TIME THRU
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA WITH POSSIBLE
AREAL EXPANSION ELSEWHERE ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...THE HEAT ADVISORY
EXPIRES ELSEWHERE AT 9PM THIS EVENING.

COOLER TEMPS THEN TAKE HOLD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF AND KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS SET TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RE-ISSUANCE OF HEAT HEADLINES.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MEAGER FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH
EITHER THE MAIN FOCUS TO OUR SOUTH IN THE CASE OF WEDNESDAY...AND A
WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR FRIDAY THRU NEXT MONDAY.  THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
BUCKLING BACK NORTH.  DESPITE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THRU
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF STEALS THE SHOW JUST ENOUGH
WITH MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE CAP TO LIKELY MAINTAIN THRU MUCH OF ITS
PASSAGE THRU THE FORECAST AREA.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY, MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF, LIES
ACROSS NORTHERN MO. ONE BIG THUNDERSTORM AND SOEM SHOWERS ARE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. SURFACE HEATING AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY LIKELY THE DRIVING FACTOR. HRRR BLOWS UP THE
LINE AND MOVE IT SOUTH. RAP AND THE LONGER TERM MODELS DO NOT,
KILLING IT AND THEN REDEVELOPING ABOUT 10Z ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN MO. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS BETTER GIVEN THE CAP AND CURRENT
TREND OF THE RAIN SHRINKING (EXCEPT FOR THE ONE STORM. BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: NOT HIGH ON THE HRRR SOLUTION SO AM PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
WILL WATCH THE CURRENT RAIN AND MAY NEED A VCSH/VCTS SOMETIME
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL PUT ANOTHER VCTS ABOUT 09-10Z BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP. CAP SHOULD BE WEAKER BY THEN. WEST WIND
TUESDAY GOING NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-
     RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-WASHINGTON
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     LINCOLN MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-ST. CHARLES
     MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN
     MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION
     IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-
     MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 6:30 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
630 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE
WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH
PRODUCTS.

LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON ALL POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER FROM LA GRANGE TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN MAINLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FOR LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER THROUGH
THIS WEEK.

HEAT INDICES MAY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER
LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

TES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:27 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
627 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     COATSBURG               40.03N  91.16W
07/13/2015  E70 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE TOWN IS NEAR QUINCY ILLINOIS.

&&

DYE

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:39 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
639 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIBERTY                 39.88N  91.11W
07/13/2015  E70 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND BLEW ANTENNA DOWN

&&

GKS

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:41 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     PAYSON                  39.82N  91.24W
07/13/2015  E70 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIXTY FOOT TALL TREE DOWNED.

&&

DYE

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:49 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLAINVILLE              39.78N  91.18W
07/13/2015  E70 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE AND VEHICLE DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

DYE

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:50 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
07/13/2015  M67 MPH          ADAMS              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            QUINCY.

&&

JPK

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:52 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARRY                   39.70N  91.04W
07/13/2015  E65 MPH          PIKE               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN. SIDING RIPPED OFF HOUSE.

&&

JPK

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 5:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Adams	53 min
Jul 13, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Adams, Brown, Pike	55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.