Heat Advisory 4, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MCS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS IS ALSO IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS.  THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF IT AT KCOU ARE SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES.  THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40KTS.  HAVE INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI.  HAVE ALSO KEPT CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
ASCENT, AND THE RAP IS SHOWING AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  GOING TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORM TRENDS REMAIN THE KEY QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND.  HAVE
BASICALLY ONLY TWEAKED THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT'S POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS BREAKS DOWN TO 30-50% CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA PUSHING CAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE THOUGH COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A DECENT CAP.
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT WITH THE HIGH
INSTABILITY THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED WITH MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE'LL GET WARM ENOUGH TO
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.  WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.  ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...OR
POSSIBLY DROPPED IF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF OF
SATURDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO BE REINFORCED BY
THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING QUICKLY THOUGH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER IOWA WILL DROP SOUTH AND MAY AFFECT KCOU
AND KUIN, BUT HAVE NOT ADDED THEM TO THE TAFS YET BECAUSE OF
TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS. THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COMPLEX
WILL REACH THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS
IT IS MORE STABLE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR BR
OR HZ OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT IT TO BE PATCHY. MAY BE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT 30 HOURS, MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING,
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS.

BRITT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  92  77  91 /  10  50  50  50
QUINCY          72  89  73  88 /  40  50  50  50
COLUMBIA        75  93  74  91 /  30  40  40  40
JEFFERSON CITY  75  94  75  92 /  30  40  40  40
SALEM           69  90  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
FARMINGTON      71  90  72  89 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
243 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MOZ018-242030-
KNOX MO-
243 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF BRASHEAR...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDINA...GREENSBURG...HURDLAND...NOVELTY AND BARING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4030 9216 3999 9218 4000 9235 4030 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 014DEG 16KT 4028 9240

GOSSELIN