Areal Flood Warning 40, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
401 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

IT APPEARS THAT RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS WILL BE PUTTING A BIG DENT IN
CONVECTIVE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER, PRISTINE UNDISTURBED AMS OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE, AND IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
FROM OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH
FAIRLY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, POSSIBLY
AIDED BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE MCV FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS. BASED ON THIS THINKING, I'VE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA, IN AREAS
THAT MISSED MOST OF TODAY'S RAINFALL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY LARGE LULL
BETWEEN ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THE EXPECTED NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. AND ALTHOUGH ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER
THAN LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION, ONCE IT GETS GOING HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEFINITELY BE A THREAT AS AMS REMAINS VERY WATER-LOGGED, WITH PWATS
AT ONCE AGAIN PROGGED AOA 2 INCHES. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED LATER
ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN, WILL CHANGE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION, WILL ADD A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT FFA TO CAPTURE KJEF AND STL METRO AREAS. ALTHOUGH
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STUCK OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA, THOUGHT A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION MAY BE PRUDENT, AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BECOME REINFORCED BY RENEWED CONVECTION, SHIFTING THE
BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING A BIT TO THE SOUTH.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR (AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER), WITH THIS CONVECTION
ROLLING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW
I'VE MAINTAINED A CLIMATOLOGICAL FLAVOR TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
AND PRIMARILY KEPT THIS MENTION DURING THE MORNING. IT'S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT GET A BETTER LOOK AT TRENDS BEFORE
EXPANDING FFA FURTHER IN EITHER AREA OR TIME.

NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, AS 12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SOUTHWARD WHILE IT ALSO USHERING COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FA WITH TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY MIDWEEK, WITH GFS AND ECMWF MUCH FUTHER
NORTH THAT NAM ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW GONE WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE, AND GENERALLY KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FORECASTING REINTENSIFICATION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT SOME THREAT OF CONVECTION EVEN AS
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE THREAT DID NOT GO
TOO EXTREME ON HIGH TEMPS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY MEAN A RETURN
OF HIGH DEWPOINTS/APPARENT TEMPS AFTER THE MID-WEEK RESPITE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW, HAVE JUST KEPT VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR ALL TAF SITES...AFTER 00Z-05Z MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
THEN COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH FROM 15Z-18Z MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW, HAVE JUST KEPT VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR METRO...AFTER 05Z MONDAY. THEN COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH BY 18Z MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
VEERING TO THE WEST AND PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

BYRD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     76  91  73  85 /  60  70  40  20
QUINCY          73  85  66  81 /  60  60  30  10
COLUMBIA        75  87  69  84 /  70  70  40  10
JEFFERSON CITY  76  89  70  84 /  60  70  40  20
SALEM           76  89  71  84 /  60  60  50  20
FARMINGTON      75  91  72  85 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON
     MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-
     LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
     OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR RANDOLPH IL.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER OVER OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM LA GRANGE
LOCK AND DAM SOUTHWARD TO VALLEY CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY MAY POSE A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AT THIS TIME...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CONTINUED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUEST TO REPORT ANY RAINFALLS OF OVER AN INCH.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E NEW SALEM           39.71N  90.83W
07/19/2015                   PIKE               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 FATAL *** COUNTY ROAD 2 COLLAPSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING JUST EAST OF NEW SALEM. AN ELECTRICAL
            COOPERATIVE REPAIRMAN DIED WHEN HIS VEHICLE PLUNGED INTO
            THE SINK HOLE...WHICH IS ABOUT 30 FEET WIDE AND 30 FEET
            DEEP. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...FATALITIES...REMARKS

BYRD