Areal Flood Warning 30, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Frontal boundary remains laid out east west across forecast area
as of 19z with MCV/surface low continuing to slide east northeast
along it. Cluster of storms that was over southwestern MO has
moved southeast into northern AR with just some lingering showers
moving through our far southern counties. Otherwise, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are developing on back side of
system and sliding southeast into forecast area. Best chances of
precipitation will be over our northern counties, as well as the
far southeast where activity may fire up again before sunset ahead
of frontal boundary. Some moderate to heavy rainfall is still
possible in the far north, so kept flash flood watch there til 00z
Saturday. CANCELLED rest of watch a few hours ago. Precipitation
to taper off by midnight most locations with cloud cover beginning
to scatter out from northwest to southeast. As for low temps, low
to mid 60s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Dry and cooler weather is expected through Saturday night before
next weather system approaches. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be on the increase Sunday and Sunday night as a
cold front slides through region on northwest flow aloft. Some
decent instability and low level moisture on Sunday/Sunday night
could see some isolated strong to severe storms with this system.

Forecast area to dry out on Monday before next in a series of
systems dives south in active northwest flow. Will have off and on
chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week with best
chances Tuesday night through Thursday and again on Friday.
Temperatures through the period will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
through Monday, then moderate a little bit on Tuesday, before
dipping back down below normal for the rest of the work week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Frontal bndry assoc with area of low pressure progressing thru the
OH vly has pushed south of all terminals this aftn leaving the
region in nthrly flow thru the remainder of the prd. The passing
of the cold front has effectively ended the precip threat this
evng with just some lingering isld sprinkles left for the next few
hrs. Main concern overnight will be the dvlpmnt of stratus...
particularly along and south of I70. There is still some
uncertainty on timing as 3Z may be too early. Also may be too
optimistic with the height...it may be considerably lower than 2.5
kft by mrng. KUIN should be north of anything that dvlps whereas
KCOU is expected to be much closer to the edge. Whatever dvlps
overnight should transition to diurnal cu be aftn with VFR very
light showers or sprinkles possible by aftn...esp along and east
of the MS rvr drng the aftn.

Specifics for KSTL:

Scttrd precip has shifted south of the terminal along with the
cold front that has allowed winds to become nthrly. Skies are
expected to at least partially clear this evng for a few hrs
before an MVFR stratus deck dvlps. There is some question as to
when it should dvlp and going fcst may be too early. Fcst may also
be too optimistic with the 2.5 kft height overnight meaning CIGs
could be substantially lower by mrng. Stratus should transition to
diurnal cu tomorrow with isld very light SHRAs/sprinkles possible
drng the aftn. Skies begin to clear towards the end of the prd
with winds eventually bcmng lght/vrb Sat night as a sfc ridge axis
passes.

Miller

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown
     IL-Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
724 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
724 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE NORTH AND MIDDLE FABIUS RIVERS AS WELL AS POINTS ALONG THE
ILLINOIS RIVER ARE CURRENTLY IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND MIDDLE
FABIUS RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXCEED MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
ALONG THE CUIVRE RIVER AT OLD MONROE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT SAVERTON...WINFIELD...GRAFTON AND CHESTER IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

KANOFSKY

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