Areal Flood Warning 11, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

Secondary cold front will continue to progress southeast this
evening with wind becoming northwest in its wake. Line of showers
and thunderstorms aligned with the front will weaken throughout the
evening with loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will be cooler
tonight with lows generally in the 60s.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

(Tuesday - Thursday)

A mostly quiet period expected with NW flow aloft initially,
transitioning to the beginnings of SW flow aloft by late Thursday
and will feature the absence of upper level disturbances and fronts
for most areas.  The exception will be northeast MO and west-central
IL, which will have small chances for TSRA for much of this period,
beginning late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with anticipated
lift from WAA at the H750-700 level that is above the cap and will
create a threat to initiate "sunrise surprise" convection.  Later on
Wednesday, a surface cold front is expected to edge into the area
and linger into Thursday.  Very high CAPEs late Wednesday will
battle with what could be enough of a cap to prevent convection, but
what does fire will have the capability of going pulse severe in the
low shear environment.  More a less a repeat of this scenario for
much of Thursday, with PoPs ramping up very late as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west.  This upper level disturbance
may be enhanced by tropical moisture from Blanca, currently in the
eastern Pacific.

Otherwise, very warm to hot temps expected, with maxes each day in
the lower to mid 90s.  Fortunately, it looks like dewpoints should
be low enough to keep heat index values near or below 100F.

(Friday - Next Monday)

For the rest of the week, we will see a RIDGE anchor over the
southeastern CONUS, with SW flow, plenty of moisture thru the
column, and regular intrusions of upper level disturbances and
lingering frontal boundaries to warrant above climo PoPs thru this
period.  Looks very active.

Temps should be at least seasonal normals, but suspect most days
will be above.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

Spotty showers and thunderstorms that developed along the cold
front near KUIN this afternoon have propagated south towards the
St. Louis area, and have finally begun to weaken as they
encounter the slightly more stable air along the I-70
corridor...as indicated by late afternoon meso analysis. Based on
latest radar trends, it would appear that the TAF sites in the STL
metro will remain dry, with only a stray shower threatening KSUS
before the precipitation totally dissipates between 00-02z.

Otherwise, it would appear that VFR conditions with nearly clear
skies are in the offing for the entire FA tonight through Tuesday.
Cold front will work a bit more south this evening and then lose
its identity overnight as surface ridge begins to build into the
area from the southern Plains. AMS is progged to destabilize on
Tuesday afternoon, and there are hints of some weak shortwave
energy propagating int the area, but forecast sounding indicate
quite a bit of CIN which should inhibit any convection.

Specifics for KSTL: Debris from upstream, late afternoon
convection will drift south and dissipate over the next few hours,
leaving clear skies/VFR conditions for the remainder of the night
and into Tuesday.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
645 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN VARIOUS PARTS OF
OUR REGION. THE CHANCE WILL INITIALLY BE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THEN EXPAND TO THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
510 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             5 SW LOUISIANA          39.39N  91.13W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       PIKE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             7 E FRANKFORD           39.49N  91.19W
06/08/2015  E0.50 INCH       PIKE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY REPORTED MARBLE SIZED HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAY 79 AND COUNTY ROAD B. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             EOLIA                   39.24N  91.01W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       PIKE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             VANDALIA                39.31N  91.49W
06/08/2015  E0.50 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COMBINATION OF HAIL AND WIND HAS KNOCKED DOWN TREE
            BRANCHES... WITH HEAVY RAIN AS WELL

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION...EVENT...REMARKS

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             VANDALIA                39.31N  91.49W
06/08/2015  E0.50 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
754 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             VANDALIA                39.31N  91.49W
06/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VANDALIA                39.31N  91.49W
06/08/2015                   AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

            WIND WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH TWO CARS INTO EACH
            OTHER. PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED VIA KRCG.

&&

TRUETT