Wind Advisory 59, NWS Los Angeles, CA

697 
WWUS76 KLOX 191123
NPWLOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
323 AM PST THU NOV 19 2015

...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.

CAZ039-052-191230-
/O.EXP.KLOX.WI.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-151119T1100Z/
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANTA BARBARA...MONTECITO...
CARPINTERIA...SAN MARCOS PASS...SAN RAFAEL WILDERNESS AREA...
DICK SMITH WILDERNESS AREA
323 AM PST THU NOV 19 2015

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.

$$

CK/ASR

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
413 PM PST WED NOV 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE HOTTEST DAY ON FRIDAY. THEN A
COLD LOW WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK FOR A TEMPERATURE DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL AN INCREASING CLOUDINESS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WITH
MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GRADIENT
INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, ENOUGH TO BUMP UP THE WINDS A
NOTCH BUT STILL MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS UPPER SUPPORT IN
BASICALLY NIL. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAW TEMPS CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES TODAY, A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS
NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WERE A MIXED
BAG BUT MOST AREAS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THERE AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS NOW
ARE SHOWING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW, AS MUCH AS
-8.5MB LAX-DAG ACCORDING TO THE NAM. THERE'S SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS EVENT BUT NOT A LOT. SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A SOLID WIND
ADVISORY DAY FOR MOST OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THERE'S A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY MORE THAN OFFSET THE
WARMING AFFECTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS SO MOST
INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE COOLER ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WHILE AREAS RIGHT AT THE COAST SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
FRIDAY OR JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE SHOULD COOL COAST/VALLEY
AREAS BY 2-4 DEGREES. COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BIG RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH A COOLER PATTERN IS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS BY
FAR THE "WETTEST" OPERATIONAL MODEL AND THE EC IS COMPLETELY DRY.
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES THOUGH BOTH PAINT A FAIRLY SIMILAR PICTURE,
WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM, THOUGH WEAKER AND NOT QUITE
AS COLD. SO LOOK FOR A COOL START TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
PERIOD, WINDY AT TIMES, AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THOUGH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD BE ANOTHER CLOSE CALL FOR SNOW OVER THE GRAPEVINE.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0013Z.

AT 0010Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 500 FT DEEP AT KLAX.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AROUND 2700 FT WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES CELSIUS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.
ANY EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOW CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...STRONGEST IN THE WESTERN PORTION. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS OVER 20 TO 25 KT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS FROM VENTURA TO POINT MUGU AND OUT TO
ANACAPA AND SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-191400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SANTA ANA WINDS BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RORKE