Hard Freeze Warning 13, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
745 PM PST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS MOVED EAST...AND IN ITS
WAKE STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING LOW WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA...BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL BY NEW YEARS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...UPDATE

WINDS REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED. HAVE
UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LA CANADA
OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MOUNTAIN WAVE SETTING UP OVER
THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAIN RANGE WHERE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE ALSO STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND INTO WEST LOS ANGELES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TREES BLOWN OVER ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF L.A. COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME A MORE
TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA EVENT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR THE MOUTAINS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE SANTA ANA WIND AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL A STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT EXPECTED
WHEREGUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP DRIVE THE SANTA ANA
WINDS TOWARDS AVALON HARBOR IN CATALINA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
BANK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND NW LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT
AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE VERY
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...A STRONG 120 KT JET
ALLIGNED N TO S WILL LINE UP OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY STRONG N TO S GRADIENT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN
CONVERTED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER THE L.A AND VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ALL VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS CAN
EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS
COLD CONDITIONS OVER NEVADA WILL CAUSE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEVADA. THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL DRIVE A PRETTY
STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH THIS
NEXT WIND EVENT...THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MAKE THIS A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER EVENT. EVEN CATALINA ISLAND WILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTY E TO NE WINDS INTO AVALON HARBOR BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PEAK
GUSTS TO 40 MPH....THEN PEAKING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND.

HAVE ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...VENTURA
COUNTY COAST AND CATALINA ISLAND STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME CONCERN WITH THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS...AS COLD AIR WILL MIX
DOWN AND HELP TO SPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF LA
CANADA AND LA CRESCENTA AND OTHER SAN GABRIEL VALLEY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES TO SAN DIMAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPED AND CAUSED SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SAN GABRIEL VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONITNUE TO MONITOR THAT SITUATION. SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS
INITIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
INTO THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND SHOULD MAKE INTO
THE WEST LOS ANGELES...HOLLYWOOD AND OTHER PARTS OF THE L.A. BASIN.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF PLENTY OF TREES COMING DOWN DUE TO BEING
DISEASED BY THE DROUGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT WILL GET QUITE COLD
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE BE DOWN TO THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE WIND PROTECTED AREAS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL AREAS OF SLO/SBA/VENTURA COUNTIES WHERE
ONLY LOCAL FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... A
HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND FREEZE WATCHES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY....BUT COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
WILL SEE SOME LIMITED WARMING ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE SANTA ANA WINDS.
SINCE THE PRIMARY AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY COLD ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERT...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY. WHERE
AS THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY MONDAY...THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE AXIS OVER SOCAL WILL BE FORCED
EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OFF
THE SOCAL COAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AREAS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THIS FALL AND NOW
WINTER...THE FLOW WILL BE NW WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY
SHOWERS S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH BY TUESDAY...WITH A 580 DM HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD NIGHTS EARLY FOR
WIND PROTECTED AREAS...THAT WILL MODIFY A BIT WARMER LATER IN THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
MAYBE A TAD WARMER FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

26/0145Z  AT 0130Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR WAS THERE
ANY INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE WILL BE OCNL MDT TURBC OVER AND
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 03Z. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT
KLAX...KBUR..KSBA OVER

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF 24 TO 28
KT XWNDS 23Z-05Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-120 AFT 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING SANTA BARBARA TO
SAN PEDRO BASINS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE
AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM POINT MUGU TO SAN MATEO POINT AND
OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT IN THE
MEANTIME COMBINED AND STEEP SEAS 7-8 FEET IN THE INNER BASINS AND
OVER 10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL PERSIST. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GENERATE SEAS THAT MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS WITHIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AVALON HARBOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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