Gale Warning 14, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLING AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE VERY NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF SLO COUNTY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR SLO COUNTY AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED LIFT THAT THERE COULD BE A SPRITZ OR TWO AS
FAR SOUTH AS L.A. COUNTY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AT THAT
TIME...GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA HELPING TO
REINFORCE THE WINDS WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE MONTECITO HILLS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE N TO NE DIRECTION THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

NW TO N WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
NORTH WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FERNANDO
AND A FEW WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AS WELL.
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED. WIND ADVISORIES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL THESE AREAS VALID LATER TODAY AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MTNS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH...ISOLATED TO 60 MPH AROUND A FEW HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SBA COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEVADA INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING THE UPPER
TROUGH TO CUTOFF AND LINGER AROUND YUMA ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WOULD HAVE BEEN CONDUCIVE
FOR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND DRIVE A POTENTIALLY STRONG
AND WIDESPREAD SANTA ANA WIND EVENT THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE CONSIDERED...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE
INDICATED A CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW NEVER CLOSES
OFF AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS TO BRING OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A AND VTU COUNTIES
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS AROUND 55 MPH
WITH THE USUAL WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS EXPERIENCING
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL PRESENT SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. READ THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SOME BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY....EXCEPT FOR STRONG SUNDOWNERS FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. HIGHS FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST SHOULD REACH THE
MID 80S...LIKELY AFTER SUNSET. BEST COOLING WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LA/VTU COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING AS WELL. FOR THURSDAY...BEST COOLING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM NEVADA
TOWARDS THE HIGH DESERT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MOST VALLEY
AND COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY. AS THE SANTA ANA WINDS
DEVELOP...EXPECT TYPICAL WARMING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE
THE INTERIOR AREAS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY WHILE COAST AND
VALLEYS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SBA SOUTH COAST AS WELL...JUST WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY 90 IN A FEW
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE HIGH TEMPS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA. BEST COOLING ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MORE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER THERE IS A STRONG VORT
LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
BY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. EXPECT TEMPS
TO COOL OFF TO MORE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES SOUTH WITH AN OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS AS THERE IS NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
MOVES OVER SOCAL.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 0257Z WAS 800 FT DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 1750 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. HOWEVER...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AT KSMX DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS 08Z-12Z...WITH ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS HAPPENING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD AFFECT KSBA WED EVENING DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED NIGHT. N WINDS AROUND 8 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT
ABOUT 08Z WED NIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/2205Z

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DUE TO THE FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT...THIS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG. THE FOCUS OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS
TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MILES
PER HOUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE TYPICAL
NORTHEAST PASSES AND CANYONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 55 MPH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 45 MPH IN COASTAL AND VALLEYS AREAS. THE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER ON SATURDAY.

HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
DURING THE NORTHERLY WIND PORTION OF THE EVENT...HOWEVER MOUNTAIN
AREAS COULD DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT BY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MANY
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SANTA
ANA WINDS BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY....WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LESS THAN GALE CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FOR THE TIME PERIOD MENTIONED.

SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS...TO CREATE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AND POSSIBLY FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.BEACHES...27/200 PM...HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST FROM A STRONG STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWEST TO WEST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SOME
ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SWELL
TO BRING ELEVATED SURF TO BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

THERE WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES EACH MORNING FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH RESIDUALS RUNNING AROUND 6
INCHES...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 FEET FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGH TIDES WILL RISE TO NEAR 7
FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THESE HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH HIGHER
SURF COULD CAUSE LOCAL COASTAL FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS
OCEANO...PISMO BEACH...PORT HUENEME...MALIBU AND LONG BEACH.

CHECK THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT LAXCFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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