Gale Warning 59, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
316 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...
317 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

BIG CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH WINDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SECONDARILY THREAT OF SOME GUSTY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING.

SURFACE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO FEED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z
HAD THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN IOWA BY MID EVENING. VERY STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING (WILL GET TO THE WINDS NEXT
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE BACKED NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL ACTUALLY BE
ADVECTING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO OUR CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY NARROW MOIST TONGUE OF UNSTABLE AIR THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF TONIGHT. MODEST CAPE...IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS...AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION SPILLING
EAST INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. FAST MOVING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING WILL PROBABLY OUTRUN THE EVER NARROWING AND WEAKENING
PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY...SO ANTICIPATE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS OR
SHORTLY AFTER THEY CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINIOS. LOW
TOPPED WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
TIME PRODUCING MUCH IF ANY LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES INTO OR CERTAINLY
ACROSS OUR CWA...HOWEVER DYNAMIC COOL SEASON SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE
CAN SOMETIMES HAVE SOME SURPRISES. DESPITE THE VERY MEAGER AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS
WOULDN'T MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR EVEN THE WEAKENING SHOWERS TO
TRANSPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE.

REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC WINDS. NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE. A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 55KT
AND VERY STRONG 8MB+/3HR PRESSURE FALL MAX TRACKING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. BOUNDARY LAYER NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE SO COULD
SEE A COUPLE/FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS NEAR/JUST ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA (30 MPH SUSTAINED OR 45 MPH GUSTS). AS PRESSURE
FALL MAXIMA SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND LLJ AXIS DOES AS WELL THINK WE
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RELAXING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY
AND WHILE WINDS WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THEY WILL STAY STRONG AND GUSTY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
317 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BRISK WEST WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY LIFTS EWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SRN QUEBEC.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY AND
COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S.  DAYTIME WIND CHILL READING
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE
UBANIZED AREAS OF THE CHICAGO AREA...WHICH SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE
LOWER 30S.  A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST...CARVING OUT LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS.  UNDER GENERALLY SWLY TO SLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S...WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL NOT BE
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT
OF SRN ROCKIES AND SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH.  TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE GENERAL TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
LOOKING WET...THOUGH TEMPERARTURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY
PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN AS EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* GRADUALLY INCREASING SE WINDS WEDNESDAY...BECOMING QUITE STRONG
  BY EVENING WITH LLWS LIKELY WED EVENING
* SCTD SHRA LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING
  INCREASINGLY LIKELY
* WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT LIKELY PRIOR TO
  DAYBREAK THURSDAY

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INITIALLY
THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...LIKELY
BECOMING GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VERY STRONG AND
GUSTY FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE STRICT
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET FOR LLWS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ANTICIPATE PIREPS OF LLWS TO BE COMMON GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED 50-60KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. TSRA OVER IOWA
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO SHRA AS THEY MOVE ACROSS N IL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE AMBIENT WIND FIELDS STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS WITH HEAVIER CELLS OVER 40KT. WINDS SHOULD EASE FOR A
TIME LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS PRESSURE FALL MAX MOVES EASTWARD
AND PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
08-10Z TIME RANGE. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY QUICKLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 30KT
POSSIBLE DURING PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP WED EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST
* CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST DECREASING TO LOW-MEDIUM WEDNESDAY
  EVENING

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 40
  KT FOR A TIME. CHANCE OF SHRA.
* FRIDAY...STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...TO 30 KT. DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
253 AM CST

ACTIVE PERIOD FORTHCOMING ON THE LAKE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TODAY CULMINATING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST GALES THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LOOK FOR WINDS TO RELAX LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO
NORTHWEST GALES TOWARD THURSDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE THE BREAK IN GALES WILL BE MUCH SHORTER AS WINDS FLIP TO
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST GALES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE LAKE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AND
HAVE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
OPEN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINDS COULD EASE TO HIGH
END GALES AT TIMES DURING THE STORM WARNING BUT PINNING DOWN 45KT
VS 50KT HOUR BY HOUR IS NOT POSSIBLE...SO AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
GRR/IWX HAVE HOISTED A LONG DURATION STORM WARNING. WHILE WINDS
LOOK TO GRADUALLY EASE ON FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE GALES WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND WINDS
FINALLY COME DOWN.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
     ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.

&&

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