Wind Chill Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

728 
WWUS43 KLMK 182342
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...EXTREMELY HARSH PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING FRIGID WIND CHILLS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191000-
/O.EXP.KLMK.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-150219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLMK.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150219T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLMK.WC.Y.0003.150219T1700Z-150220T1200Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
642 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015 /542 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015/

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
THIS EVENING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
THIS EVENING. A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EST /11 AM CST/ THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY.

* TIMING: SNOW SHOWERS SQUALLS ARE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REGION
  WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WIND CHILL READINGS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
  ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ZERO
  THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS LIKELY WILL BE
  AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO
  BE OUTSIDE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME. WIND CHILL READINGS
  WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND
  CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
  ON THURSDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE COLD TEMPERATURES...LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
  BELOW ZERO...WILL MEAN ANY WET PAVEMENTS THIS EVENING COULD
  QUICKLY BECOME SLICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRESS IN LAYERS TO TRAP BODY HEAT AND TO INSULATE YOU FROM THE
COLD AIR. COVER AS MUCH EXPOSED SKIN AS POSSIBLE AND STAY DRY.

&&

$$

RJS

584 
WWUS43 KLMK 190838
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
338 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

.WEST BREEZES WILL BRING FRIGID WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191700-
/O.CON.KLMK.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150219T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLMK.WC.Y.0003.150219T1700Z-150220T1200Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
338 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 /238 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015/

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/
TODAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST
/11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY. 

* TIMING: WIND CHILL READINGS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO AND WILL
  REMAIN BITTERLY COLD THROUGH TONIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO
  BE OUTSIDE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME. WIND CHILL READINGS
  WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* OTHER IMPACTS: EXPOSED WATER PIPES WILL BE IN DANGER OF
  FREEZING AND BURSTING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRESS IN LAYERS TO TRAP BODY HEAT AND TO INSULATE YOU FROM THE
COLD AIR. COVER AS MUCH EXPOSED SKIN AS POSSIBLE AND STAY DRY.

&&

$$

13

821 
WWUS43 KLMK 191446
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
946 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.WEST BREEZES WILL BRING FRIGID WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-192300-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150219T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KLMK.WC.Y.0003.150219T1500Z-150220T1200Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
946 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 /846 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL WARNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY. 

* TIMING: WIND CHILL READINGS HAVE WARMED ABOVE WARNING LEVELS.
  HOWEVER WIND CHILLS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10
  BELOW AND 20 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* MAIN IMPACT: BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO
  BE OUTSIDE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRESS IN LAYERS TO TRAP BODY HEAT AND TO INSULATE YOU FROM THE
COLD AIR. COVER AS MUCH EXPOSED SKIN AS POSSIBLE AND STAY DRY.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. 
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1209 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1045 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

NW-SE oriented snow squalls continue to move through central and
east-central KY this morning.  These squalls are moving off to the
east at 25-30 MPH and will affect the Bluegrass region of central KY
for the remainder of the morning.

Latest runs from the HRRR suggest that more NW-SE oriented finger
bands of snow squalls are expected to redevelop across the region.
Based on the last few runs of the HRRR, it appears that the best
coverage of snow showers/squalls would generally be along and east
of the I-65 corridor. Based on those trends, have increased PoPs and
cloud cover east of I-65 for the afternoon hours.  While we will be
running high chance PoPs, it really is more based on expected
coverage.  Some areas will see snow showers, others may escape with
only flurries.  Within these squalls an additional 1 to perhaps as
much as 2 inches could be seen...especially if a band sets up over a
particular area.

We will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going through the afternoon
for the entire area.  Temperatures will continue to fall with
readings mainly in the teens with a fall into single digits by the
evening.  With the loss of heating and the trough axis aloft heading
to the east, we expect to see the snow shower/squall activity drop
off rapidly after sunset.

Based on upstream observations, it appears we will go more clear
tonight resulting in temperatures falling well below zero
overnight.  Current thinking is that our current forecast minimums
are too warm and that further downward adjustments will be needed.
We will continue to look at the full 12Z guidance before making
major adjustments.  In addition, current wind forecasts combined
with colder temperatures may necessitate an upgrade of the wind
chill advisory to a wind chill warning.  Will be collaborating with
surrounding offices on this during the afternoon.

Update issued at 938 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

Pretty decent snow squall moving eastward through the central part
of the forecast area.  The squall is just west of US 27/127 and will
continue to move east at 25-30 MPH.  The squall is producing heavy
snow, winds up to 25-30 MPH and reducing visibilities down below 1/4
of a mile.  This will impact the Frankfort and Lexington areas in
the next hour.  One half to one inch of snowfall is expected with
this squall.  Although, it is very difficult to measure the exact
snowfall as the 25-30 MPH winds are really whipping the snow around.

Update issued at 819 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

Surface cold front is currently pushing through the I-65 corridor at
the moment and will continue eastward toward the I-75 corridor this
morning.  Current tracking suggests that it will clear our forecast
area by 16-17Z.  A few snow showers will trail behind the cold
front, but the bulk of snow will still occur out ahead of the front.

Northwest winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH will be common
as we continue into the morning hours.  We will see a brief lull in
the snow shower activity, but we expect snow showers and heavier
snow squalls to redevelop this afternoon.  These squalls will have
the potential to lay down some additional localized accumulations.
Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon, so the
warmest temperatures of the day have already occurred.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

...Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills...

An area of light to moderate snow will cross the region early this
morning, exiting to the east by late morning.  Accumulations around
an inch to as much as 2 inches still look reasonable, so will keep
the Winter Weather Advisory going.

A cold front crossing the area early this morning will usher in
gusty west winds and very cold air.  Winds of 10 to 20 mph will gust
to 20 to 30 mph.  The CAA behind the front will cause temperatures
to fall this afternoon.  The combination of very cold temperatures
and brisk winds will lead to wind chills at or below -10 by mid
afternoon, so will hoist a Wind Chill Advisory.

This afternoon we'll have strong cold air advection aloft and partly
to mostly cloudy skies, leading to weak instability.  We'll have
high RH below 700 hPa, much of it in temperatures very conducive to
snowflake growth.  Also, we'll be beneath upper level cyclonic flow
and SPC's snow squall parameter is expected to be around 3, which is
very supportive of snow showers.  As a result, scattered snow
showers are expected throughout the area this afternoon, and could
put down additional local accumulations.  In addition to the snow
showers, those biting winds on top of the new fluffy snow from this
morning (plus the pre-existing snow pack from Monday) will lead to
blowing snow, especially in rural areas.  As a result, will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory going through the afternoon for the
combination of falling snow, blowing snow, and dangerous wind chills.

Any snow showers this afternoon should end quickly this evening as
the sun sets and the upper trof axis is well east of here.

With the deep snowpack in place, reinforced by new snow this morning
and possibly this afternoon, temperatures tonight will be extremely
cold.  Kept the forecast we've had going for the past few days, and,
after seeing some of the amazing numbers on the Kentucky Mesonet for
yesterday morning's lows, ran a tool we have that takes local cold
spots into account when determining the low temperature forecast.
The tool gave lows as low as -20 in a few locations for Thursday
morning.  Decided to temper the numbers just a bit, keeping them in
the -9 to -17 range (there may be scattered clouds in the area, plus
some wind), but suffice to say that it will be a cold night.  Winds
near 10 mph will continue to give us extremely cold wind chills,
possibly meeting warning criteria.  If widespread warning criteria
look likely, the Wind Chill Advisory may need to be upgraded.

Tomorrow the arctic high that is giving us all this cold air will
move right into the Ohio Valley.  For now we will aim for highs in
the single digits, though some locations...especially those in the
Blue Grass that have the deepest snow cover...may be lucky to get
above zero.  West winds of 10 to 15 mph will continue to provide
advisory level wind chills...possibly warning level in the morning.

For the past couple of days the GFS has been advertising slightly
deeper moisture than most other models Thursday afternoon, and has
been consistent in generating some extremely light QPF.  As a nod to
the model's insistence, will add in some scattered flurries Thursday
afternoon over the Blue Grass.  It doesn't take much to squeeze a
few snowflakes out of air this cold.

For now, will allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire Thursday
evening since winds Thursday night go nearly calm.  Nevertheless,
even a tiny breeze will result in very cold wind chills in this
frigid air.  Future shifts will continue to assess if an advisory
will be needed for Thursday night into Friday.

Thanks to IND, JKL, and ILN for coord.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

...Record Cold Friday Morning Then Potential Weekend Wintry Mess...

Thursday night is shaping up to be the second consecutive night of
record cold for central Kentucky and southern Indiana as a very
anomalous Arctic airmass takes over the Ohio Valley. Synoptically,
the deep upper trough will be anchored over the Great Lakes and
Northeast US while the Arctic high advances from the central Plains
eastward, centering itself over eastern Kentucky by 12z Friday
morning. 850 mb temperatures are expected to be in the -22 to -25C
range, which would be a record for ILN upper air sounding
climatology. NAEFS standardized anomalies consistently show -4 to
-5SD from Wed 18z to Fri 18z, an impressive 48 hour stretch. Helping
to reach these extreme temperatures will be the recent snowpack and
lighter winds and overall mostly clear skies. However, high level
clouds are likely to spread east across the area after midnight,
which could limit the radiational cooling, especially west of I-65.
Overall though, confidence is high that we'll see lows -10 to -15F
with isolated -20F readings not out of the question for the rural,
typical cold spots of central/eastern Kentucky. Given these extreme
low temperatures, although winds are expected to be less than 10
mph, even light winds will create dangerous wind chills of -20 to
-25 overnight into Friday morning.

Weekend Storm System:

A wintry mix mess is looking likely for much of the region beginning
Friday late afternoon through Saturday. The upper level pattern will
transition to zonal to slightly southwesterly as a western CONUS
trough digs. Pieces of energy will eject out into the southern
Plains resulting in a surface low developing across northern Texas
by Friday evening.

Increasing moist southerly flow ahead of the surface low and
increasing isentropic lift should lead to precipitation breaking out
across Tennessee and southern Kentucky as early as mid afternoon.
Thermal profiles suggest this would be all snow and could produce
quick minor accumulations Friday late afternoon, possibly during the
afternoon commute for areas along the KY/TN border.

During the evening hours, the surface low begins to intensify and
lift toward the region. Precipitation will increase and spread
northward. A low-level jet between 700 and 900 mb will bring a warm
nose of air northward during the evening hours, expected to reach
north central Kentucky by late evening or early overnight. Right now
soundings show this warm layer being on the order of +1 to +3C
during the overnight hours, then steadily increasing Saturday
morning. North of the KY parkways, precipitation could remain as
snow for several hours before mixing with sleet then going over to a
period of freezing rain early Saturday morning. After sunrise
Saturday, most of the area is expected to be near to slightly above
freezing. The exception is across southern Indiana where
temperatures may remain cold enough to support more of a wintry mix
during the morning hours Saturday.

Saturday afternoon through Saturday night the surface low tracks
through Kentucky and precipitation is expected to continue as mainly
rain as the low levels should be sufficiently warm. Precipitation
begins to exit late Saturday night or Sunday morning, which could be
a rain/snow to snow changeover as colder air wraps behind the
system.

Model Preferences / Trends:

A time-trend analysis has shown slight warming in the thermal
profiles over the last 4 cycles, though nothing too significant at
this point. Additionally, the models seem to be a bit more amplified
and slower compared to the past runs. It is noted that the GEM was a
fast outlier while the GFS was similarly on the slower side of the
spread. The forecast was weighted toward the 18.00z ECMWF which
seems to be a good compromise at this point given the large model
spread in timing. The 18.00z guidance as a whole trended back toward
a stronger surface system, which would likely bring warmer air
northward into the region. Overall, confidence in storm track and
timing is average.

Sensible Weather and Impacts:

Overall, a wintry mess is looking more likely across the area Friday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon. The initial snow could
accumulate around 2 inches across the area before changing over to a
wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. We'll have to watch for ice
accumulations across southern into central Kentucky where it could
total up to 0.1", causing additional impacts. If the low level
temperatures end up colder or climb slower than forecast, then there
would be a longer period of freezing rain. Something to watch. Then
finally we'll deal with the liquid part of the event, which is
expected to be on the order of 0.5" or more. On top of a frozen
ground and new snow/sleet/freezing rain, this may cause some
localized hydrology issues for area creeks and streams.

Finally, despite surface temperatures warming above freezing
Saturday, road temperatures will be much slower to respond given the
recent cold snap this week. This could result in additional icy and
slick roadways, or at least further into the day Saturday.

Sunday - Tuesday:

In the wake of the weekend system, a reinforcing shot of Arctic air
is advertised by the 18.00z deterministic and ensemble guidance.
This supports a continuation of below normal temperatures with
northwest flow aloft. A model consensus of highs in the upper 20s to
mid 30s and overnight lows in the teens looks reasonable at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

Surface cold front has passed through the region and in its wake we
have numerous snow showers and snow squalls mainly out in central
Kentucky.  Latest high resolution guidance suggests that more snow
showers and squalls will develop later this afternoon.  Its
difficult to pinpoint if any particular squall would affect the
airports.  For now plan on keeping light snow and blowing snow in at
KSDF and KLEX through the afternoon and snow showers within the
vicinity down at KBWG.  Surface winds this afternoon will be out of
the northwest (290 deg mainly) with sustained speeds of 12-15kts
and gusts of around 24-27kts.  The blowing snow may result in some
MVFR vsbys at times.  Ceilings are generally expected to remain in
the MVFR range, but most likely will see it fluctuate between
MVFR/VFR.

After 19/00Z, we should see marked improvement at the terminals as
the snow shower activity ends.  We expect mostly clear skies to
develop, though the models are trying to hold on to some low-level
moisture across the Bluegrass region overnight which may result in a
low cloud deck hanging around. Surface winds will remain elevated
this evening but are expected to slacken toward Thursday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 7
     PM EST /6 PM CST/ Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
     061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 7
     PM EST /6 PM CST/ Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-190900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
351 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 /251 AM CST WED FEB 18 2015/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST TODAY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO BE OUTSIDE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON
WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO.

INTENSE COLD TONIGHT COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE WITH
WIND CHILLS -5 TO -25. THESE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS POSE A
REAL DANGER TO ANYONE WHO IS OUTSIDE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF
TIME!

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN BECOME A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE TO THE FORECAST
UPDATES CONCERNING THIS STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY.

13/ZBT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     SNOW             NICHOLASVILLE           37.88N 84.58W
02/18/2015  M2.5 INCH        JESSAMINE          KY   PUBLIC

            NEW SNOW

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     SNOW             2 NE CENTRAL            38.13N 86.13W
02/18/2015  M1.8 INCH        HARRISON           IN   PUBLIC

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
933 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

KYZ034>036-038>041-045-047-048-056-057-181600-
ANDERSON KY-FAYETTE KY-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-JESSAMINE KY-MADISON
KY-MERCER KY-NELSON KY-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-WOODFORD KY-
933 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO
THE WESTERN BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 924 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL JUST WEST OF LAWRENCEBURG AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

THIS SNOW SQUALL WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.  GUSTY WINDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS.  A QUICK ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

* THESE SNOW SQUALLS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEXINGTON...
  VETERANS PARK...
  FAYETTE MALL...
  U K ARBORETUM...
  DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL...
  FOX CREEK AND HICKORY GROVE...
  STRINGTOWN AND MCBRAYER...
  TYRONE AND NEVIN...
  MILNER AND OREGON...

THE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 35 AND 87.

THE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 104 AND 99.

THE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 48 AND 72.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 8429 3800 8432 3796 8432 3797 8431
      3793 8434 3789 8434 3774 8456 3787 8502
      3789 8505 3789 8511 3792 8512 3790 8514
      3796 8536 3835 8511 3811 8437 3808 8433
      3809 8431 3807 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1430Z 281DEG 22KT 3802 8501

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

KYZ046-047-054>056-065>067-077-078-081-181600-
ADAIR KY-BOYLE KY-CASEY KY-CUMBERLAND KY-GARRARD KY-LINCOLN KY-MARION
KY-MERCER KY-RUSSELL KY-TAYLOR KY-WASHINGTON KY-
1004 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 859 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HARRODSBURG TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEBANON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

HEAVY SNOW...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...AND REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY DOWN TO BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
SNOW SQUALLS.  ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE SQUALLS PASS THROUGH.

* THESE SNOW SQUALLS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LIBERTY...
  STANFORD...
  LANCASTER...
  JAMESTOWN...
  HARRODSBURG...
  STRINGTOWN AND PURDY...
  NEEDMORE AND NEATSVILLE...
  GENTRYS MILL AND SANO...
  RUSSELL SPRINGS AND DUNNVILLE...

THESE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND (NUNN) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 49 AND 62.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 8522 3689 8523 3687 8522 3692 8546
      3698 8547 3786 8498 3775 8458 3773 8458
      3773 8448 3769 8445 3743 8446 3733 8450
      3734 8457 3712 8490 3705 8490 3699 8483
      3695 8490 3696 8494 3690 8497 3684 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 287DEG 22KT 3783 8487 3748 8507
          3699 8534

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1014 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     SNOW             CAMPBELLSVILLE          37.35N 85.35W
02/18/2015  M2.0 INCH        TAYLOR             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEW SNOW

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1017 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             BONNIEVILLE             37.38N 85.90W
02/18/2015  M2.2 INCH        HART               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEW SNOW...13 INCHES SNOWDEPTH

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM