Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Louisville, KY

956 
WWUS43 KLMK 150346
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILL VALUES. ANOTHER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

INZ077>079-092-KYZ031>037-041>043-049-151100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WC.Y.0002.150215T0500Z-150215T1500Z/
WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-CLARK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...WINCHESTER
1046 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT WITH
  WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND
  TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$

KYZ061-070>078-081-082-151100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.A.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
BUTLER KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORGANTOWN...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
946 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

* TIMING: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING A WINTER STORM 
  WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
  KENTUCKY CAUSING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY MONDAY 
  MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP...BUT THE EXACT
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY ARE YET UNDETERMINED. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

$$

EER/AMS/RJS

468 
WWUS43 KLMK 150858
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
358 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY EVENING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
EXCEED 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS
EXCEEDING A FOOT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. 

KYZ061-070>078-081-082-151700-
/O.UPG.KLMK.WS.A.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
BUTLER KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORGANTOWN...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
258 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.


* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY
  MORNING. ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
  MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS WITH SOME ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT OF BLANKETS...FOOD...WATER AND FLASHLIGHTS
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. 

&&

$$

INZ077>079-092-KYZ031>037-041>043-049-151700-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLMK.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150215T1500Z/
WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-CLARK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...WINCHESTER
358 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.

* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY
  MORNING. ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
  MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. 6 TO 10 INCHES
  IN KENTUCKY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WIND CHILL: AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID-MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS WITH SOME ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT OF BLANKETS...FOOD...WATER AND FLASHLIGHTS
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$

INZ076-083-084-089>091-KYZ023>030-038>040-045>048-053>057-062>067-
151700-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
ORANGE IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...
CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
358 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 /258 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
TUESDAY. 

* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY
  MORNING. ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
  MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. 6 TO 10
  INCHES NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. 8 TO 12 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
  WESTERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS. LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN KENTUCKY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS WITH SOME ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT OF BLANKETS...FOOD...WATER AND FLASHLIGHTS
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. 

&&

$$

RAS/KD

489 
WWUS43 KLMK 151506
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1006 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY EVENING TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

INZ077>079-092-KYZ031>037-041>043-049-152315-
/O.EXP.KLMK.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150215T1500Z/
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.W.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-CLARK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...WINCHESTER
1006 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY. 


* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY 
  MORNING. ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY 
  MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. 

* ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. 6 TO 10 INCHES
  IN KENTUCKY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS WITH SOME ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT OF BLANKETS...FOOD...WATER AND FLASHLIGHTS
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.

&&

$$

INZ076-083-084-089>091-KYZ023>030-038>040-045>048-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-152315-
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.W.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
ORANGE IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...
CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
1006 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 /906 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY. 

* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY 
  MORNING. ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY 
  MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. 

* ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. 6 TO 10 
  INCHES NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. 8 TO 12 INCHES SOUTH OF THE 
  WESTERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS. LOCALLY HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN KENTUCKY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS WITH SOME ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT OF BLANKETS...FOOD...WATER AND FLASHLIGHTS
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.

&&

$$

KJD/EER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 316 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2015

...Wind chills falling to zero or below overnight...

The cold front this afternoon is generally along a line from
Frankfort to Bowling Green. It will continue to move east through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures across
central Indiana and far northern KY have dropped into the 20s and
will start to fall across southern Indiana shortly. Temps will
continue to fall through the afternoon into the teens and 20s across
the entire area by early evening.

Light snow will continue for the next few hours across the eastern
portion of the forecast area. With the gusty winds visibilities at
times will drop quickly over short distances. Thus, travel will
continued to be impacted across east central KY for the next few
hours. In addition, some slick spots will be possible on untreated
roadways this evening as temperatures fall.

Will keep the Wind Advisory through 00Z. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph
have already been recorded in the Advisory area and will continue to
be possible through the remainder of the afternoon. Thereafter,
winds will slowly diminish overnight. However, will still see winds
of around 10 mph by morning.

Temperatures will fall into the single digits overnight. The lowest
temps will be across southern Indiana and portions of the northern
Bluegrass. Combined with the winds, wind chills will fall to zero or
below by the early morning hours. Across the aforementioned area,
wind chills will fall to near -10 or below. Therefore have decided
to issue a Wind Chill Advisory for these areas. This Advisory will
continue through mid morning Sunday when temps begin to warm up.

Temperatures on Sunday will be quite chilly. Highs will only be in
the upper teens to mid 20s across the area.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat
Feb 14 2015

...Winter Storm Chances Increasing for Sun Night through Monday...

Sunday Night - Monday...

-----------------
Model Comparison:
-----------------

A wide range of model solutions still exists for a potential winter
storm set to impact the area mainly Sun night and Monday.  Sfc low
pressure will organize over TX Sunday night spreading Gulf moisture
northward into an Arctic airmass which will result in wintry
precipitation from the Gulf States to the Ohio Valley.  Central KY
and southern IN definitely look to be on the snowy side of this
storm.  The questions surrounding our area with regards to this
weather system are how much moisture will get pulled this far north
and where the cut-off for snow/no snow will be.

Generally two camps of models exist...12Z NAM/15Z SREF and then 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM with ensemble clusters trending toward the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM camp.  The NAM/SREF solns would bring an initial wave
of precipitation mainly to the region Sun night/early Mon and
perhaps a secondary wave Tues/Tues night.  Both waves would bring
the most precip likely in the form of snow to portions of
central/south central KY.

The GFS/ECMWF/GEM/ensemble soln indicates one main wave of precip
Sun night into Monday in the form of snow.  Most mid range
models and ensembles were in agreement with or trended toward this
soln, thus it is the preferred forecast track.  However, these
models present varying degrees of precipitation amounts.

---------------------------------
Precipitation Amounts Comparison:
---------------------------------

Within the preferred storm track (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/ensemble solns), a
wide range of forecast precipitation amounts exists for our area.
While we are confident that p-type will likely be snow, we have low
confidence in exactly how much and where.  The 12Z GFS spreads snow
as far north as the Ohio River with south central KY receiving the
most precipitation.  The GEM is similar to the GFS but also includes
Indiana in the precipitation area.  Its best precipitation amounts
are also centered over south central KY.  The ECMWF is the most
aggressive with precipitation amounts  indicating all of central KY
would see significant precipitation with the precip shield spreading
well into central Indiana.  Given all of these solns, the common
denominator is south central KY which has the potential to see
significant snowfall.  This has been a theme in many of the models
for quite a few runs now, so feel that a Winter Storm Watch is in
order for Sun night through Monday evening for south central KY
including the Bowling Green metro area.

Snowfall amounts with this system are difficult to pin down at this
point.  Forcing with this weather system appears strong with
saturation well into the dendritic growth zone which will aid
snowfall amounts.  Also, with temps likely in the 20s while the best
snow is falling, snowfall ratios may run more in the 11:1 to 14:1
range vs our reg 10:1 or less which typically occurs around here.
However, the amount of dry air associated with the Arctic high
plummeting into the region this afternoon and the strength of that
high may play a role in limiting snowfall amounts and determining
overall storm track.  At this time, feel the potential is there for
the Winter Storm Watch area over south central KY to receive 4+
inches of snow.

Tuesday - Saturday...

The forecast for mid week and beyond will be determined by the
results of the Sun night/Monday system.  Light snowfall chances look
possible Tues/Tues night.  A very cold pattern looks to take hold of
the region for much of the week with temps in the single digits at
night and teens/20s during the day.  Another storm system may impact
the region Fri/Sat.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2015

Light to moderate snow showers will affect all the TAF sites through
21-22Z as a cold front moves through the area. Visibilities will
drop to IFR at times in the heaviest snow showers. Ceilings will
drop to MVFR and fuel alternate MVFR at times with the heaviest snow
as well. Expect conditions to improve through the late afternoon in
the wake of the front as the snow moves out of the area.

Winds this afternoon will be quite gusty out of the WNW shifting to
the NW. Sustained winds will be in the 15-20 knot range with
frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 will be possible at
times. Gusts will diminish this evening and winds will shift to
northerly by tomorrow morning. Expect VFR conditions tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening FOR KYZ029>043-045>049-
     055>057-067.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday
     FOR KYZ031>037-041>043-049.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KYZ061-070>078-081-082.

IN...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-090>092.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday
     FOR INZ077>079-092.

&&

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-150900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 /300 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 OR EVEN 40 MPH
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 0
TO TEN BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON THE OVERALL PATH OF
THE STORM.

WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY.
SPOTTERS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE SNOW REPORTING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/RAS

TRAVELERS ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1059 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

INZ079-090>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
142100-
JEFFERSON IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1059 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 /959 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/

...TRAVELERS ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED
A TRAVELERS ADVISORY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM UNTIL 4 PM EST/3 PM CST.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH COMMON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
HALF A MILE AT TIMES OVER VERY SHORT DISTANCES. IN ADDITION THESE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO UP TO
AN INCH.

TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION WHEN OUT TODAY. RAPIDLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE DRIVING
HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. MORE
INFORMATION..ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

EER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

INZ076>078-083-084-089-142100-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...JASPER...
MARENGO...TELL CITY
116 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 /1216 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/

...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY CAUSE
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH...RESULTING
IN SLICK ROADWAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 OR 35
MPH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL LESSEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AIR TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
COMBINED WITH NORTH BREEZES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO
TEN BELOW OVERNIGHT.

BE SURE TO TAKE IT EASY IF ENCOUNTERING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE OUT ON
THE ROADS...REDUCE YOUR SPEED AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS.
ADDITIONALLY...BE PREPARED TO BUNDLE UP IN LAYERS IF GOING
OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

EER

TRAVELERS ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
338 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

KYZ035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-074-076>078-150000-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-BARREN KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...
STANFORD...GLASGOW...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN
338 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 /238 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/

...TRAVELERS ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED
A TRAVELERS ADVISORY FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM EST.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
MAY DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES OVER VERY
SHORT DISTANCES. IN ADDITION THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO UP TO HALF AN INCH.

TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION WHEN OUT TODAY. RAPIDLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE DRIVING
HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. MORE
INFORMATION..ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

EER