Wind Advisory 5, NWS Louisville, KY

617 
WWUS73 KLMK 282356
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
656 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST/6 PM CST...

KYZ026-027-061>064-070>078-081-082-290100-
/O.EXP.KLMK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151229T0000Z/
OHIO-GRAYSON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-
ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...SALEM...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
556 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

STRONG GUSTS UP OVER 40 MPH ARE NO LONGER BEING OBSERVED...
THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE. A FEW GUSTS UP BETWEEN
30-35 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SO USE
CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING...OR IF OUTDOORS.

$$

BJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1241 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1050 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2015

Another warm advection wing of showers lifted fairly quickly through
the Bluegrass region this morning, but the lull continues along and
west of I-65. Warm front is draped very close to the KY/TN border,
with a fairly sharp temp contrast across the frontal zone. Temps
near 50 as far south as the Western KY and Bluegrass Parkways, with
lower/mid 60s just on the Kentucky side of the border, and lower 70s
as close as Nashville.

NAM12 appeared to have the best handle on what went through this
morning, and brings the main band of rain in 18-21Z for areas west
of I-65, and 21-00Z east of I-65. Average QPF is just shy of a half
inch, but most of our precip has overachieved lately, and 1-hr FFG
is below an inch in many spots. Thus the Flash Flood Watch will
continue.

Northward push of the warm front this afternoon will determine our
severe potential. Shear is quite strong, but believe instability
will be limited to along and south of the Cumberland Parkway where
temps are able to jump into the 70s.

Current forecast still appears to be on track, so just tweaking the
hourly trends in grids and hi-res products.

Updated 630 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2015

Minor updates to the POPs for this morning as warm advection shield
of precipitation now lifting well into southern Indiana. Better
moisture transport for additional scattered showers will be found
west of I-65, so areas such as the Bluegrass region will probably
remain dry (drizzle possibly) until the main line of showers/storms
this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued 345 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2015

Main concern:
Line of showers and storms this afternoon and evening
Threats:
#1: locally torrential downpours
#2: locally strong, gusty winds
#3: a brief, weak spin-up tornado south of Ohio River, west of I-65

Details:
A warm front stretched out along and just south of the
Kentucky/Tennessee border this morning will surge northward as
deepening low pressure travels from Little Rock to Saint Louis.
Showers will accompany the warm front as it moves through this
morning.

This afternoon we will get into the warm sector of the system, with
a high shear low instability environment. SBCAPE and MUCAPE look to
be on the order of 500-1000 J/kg (probably closer to the 500 number)
as surface dew points peak around 60. Lifted Index does go slightly
negative. A line of low-topped showers and thunderstorms (tops on
the order of 25-30k ft) is expected to develop ahead of an incoming
5H speed max, crossing the western border of the LMK CWA early this
afternoon around 19Z, crossing central Kentucky (southern Indiana
will get showers but probably little if any thunder),and exiting
LMK's Blue Grass counties around 02Z this evening. Plenty of wind
energy aloft with weak CIN south of the Ohio, so some stronger wind
gusts could mix down to the surface. With such strong shear, an
isolated, brief, weak spin-up tornado can't be entirely ruled out
south of the river and west of Interstate 65 during the mid-
afternoon hours. Wet bulb zero heights suggest some pea sized hail
could be produced in the strongest cells.

Winds ahead of the storms could gust to 30 or 35 mph for a few hours
this afternoon. Considered a Wind Advisory, but after collaboration
with nearby offices decided to hold off for now. Right now winds are
expected to stay just below the traditional criteria for a headline,
and would only last for a brief period of time. Nevertheless,
something to watch.

Precipitable water amounts are forecast to peak around 1.7 inches
coincident with the line of showers/storms this afternoon. If that
comes true, it would be a record value for the date. Also, K Index
values are progged in the middle 30s. Torrential downpours can be
expected in the afternoon storms, and will lead to local flash
flooding problems. Thus, the Flash Flood Watches remain in effect.
See the "Hydro" section below for additional information on this
aspect of today's weather.

Record highs will be possible again today in central Kentucky
depending on how much warming can occur before the showers and
storms move in.

Lingering showers will be possible tonight, followed by dry weather
on Tuesday behind the departing storm system. High temperatures on
Tuesday will range from the middle and upper 40s in southern Indiana
to the middle 50s in southern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2015

A broad upper trof moving from the Plains to the Northeast will
bring moisture northward and cause light rain to break out across
the southeast United States Tuesday night and Wednesday. The LMK CWA
will be on the northwest edge of this area of rain, so will continue
with chance PoPs for those time periods.

The rest of the forecast will provide us (both the public and us
forecasters) with a welcome spell of quiet, dry weather as high
pressure dominates much of the country.

The much advertised cool-down is still looking likely. The coldest
morning of the long term should be Saturday morning as we tumble
into the lower and middle 20s. The coldest afternoon will be on
Friday as the mercury peaks in the middle and upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Mon Dec 28 2015

Mainly MVFR/IFR flight conditions with gusty winds during this TAF
period as a strong low pressure system moves NE through the Midwest.

SDF/LEX currently sit north of a warm front as of 1730Z this
afternoon which has resulting in IFR to low end MVFR cigs.  As the
warm front pushes north through the TAF sites this afternoon, would
expect cigs to improve a bit although they may not completely jump
up an improved cat as rains will arrive shortly after.

BWG which was currently right on the warm front as of 1730Z can
expect to stay mainly VFR until moderate rains arrive later this
afternoon.

All TAF sites should go MVFR/IFR in steady rains with perhaps a
rumble of thunder from approx. 20Z-2z.  Periodic IFR is expected at
all TAF sites during this time period.  Also, higher wind gusts may
mix down in the showers/isld storms and will need to be handled as
any storm approaches.  After the main line of convection exits the
area, isld showers or maybe even drizzle will occur during the
overnight hrs.

As for the winds, wind gusts between 20-30 kts will be common at the
TAF sites outside of any t-storms this afternoon and through the
overnight hours.  A strong LLJ at 2 kft (65 kts) will pass through
this afternoon coincident with convection.  As for wind direction, E
sfc winds will veer to the SSE as the warm front lifts north this
afternoon.  Then winds will veer to the SW behind the cold front
this evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1129 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-291630-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN...
MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH...
BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WILMORE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...
STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1129 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 /1029 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING AND CREATE NEW FLOODING. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
101 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

KYZ026-061-070-281930-
BUTLER-OHIO-LOGAN-
101 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN OHIO...LOGAN AND WESTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 1259 PM CST...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
MILES SOUTH OF CALHOUN TO 9 MILES NORTH OF ELKTON TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COOPERTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...HARTFORD...ANDERSON...BEAVER DAM...ADAIRVILLE...
LEWISBURG...CENTERTOWN...MCHENRY...ROCKPORT...ROCHESTER...
LICKSKILLET...COOPERSTOWN...QUALITY...HUNTSVILLE...JERICO...PLEASANT
HILL...HOMER...HEFLIN...AGNES AND SCHLEY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3738 8709 3746 8710 3748 8713 3748 8710
      3763 8695 3724 8678 3677 8674 3665 8676
      3664 8706 3706 8705 3709 8690 3716 8693
      3719 8689 3724 8691 3727 8698 3732 8699
      3736 8703 3737 8707 3733 8711 3734 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 217DEG 47KT 3741 8727 3694 8710 3650 8704

EER