Tornado Warning 34, NWS Louisville, KY

655 
WWUS53 KLMK 232206
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

KYC091-232216-
/O.CAN.KLMK.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-151223T2215Z/
HANCOCK KY-
406 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3812 8680 3818 8680 3826 8665 3805 8649
      3804 8652 3800 8655 3797 8665 3795 8678
      3799 8679 3800 8677 3802 8678 3803 8677
      3804 8679 3806 8677 3810 8677 3812 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 234DEG 54KT 3808 8673 

$$

INC123-232215-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-151223T2215Z/
PERRY IN-
406 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTY...
    
AT 406 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF TELL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CELINA...
SASSAFRAS...LILLY DALE...ADYEVILLE...BANDON...BRANCHVILLE...
APALONA...KITTERMAN CORNERS...LEOPOLD AND GATCHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8680 3818 8680 3826 8665 3805 8649
      3804 8652 3800 8655 3797 8665 3795 8678
      3799 8679 3800 8677 3802 8678 3803 8677
      3804 8679 3806 8677 3810 8677 3812 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 234DEG 54KT 3808 8673 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

EER

291 
WWUS53 KLMK 232214
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
414 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

INC123-232223-
/O.EXP.KLMK.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-151223T2215Z/
PERRY IN-
414 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM
CST...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3812 8680 3818 8680 3826 8665 3805 8649
      3804 8652 3800 8655 3797 8665 3795 8678
      3799 8679 3800 8677 3802 8678 3803 8677
      3804 8679 3806 8677 3810 8677 3812 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 234DEG 54KT 3808 8673 

$$

EER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2015

...Severe Thunderstorms With Damaging Winds and Tornadoes Late This
Afternoon into this Evening...

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a very amplified
ridge off the eastern seaboard, with a trough sliding into the
central CONUS.  Within this trough, a negatively-tilted shortwave/PV
anomaly was noted across portions of the Central Plains.  This will
slide into northeastern Canada through the period, helping to deepen
a surface low over the Upper Midwest and drag an associated cold
front through the Ohio Valley late tonight.

All focus is on the severe weather threat starting now in southern
IN, and likely to increase through the evening hours across the rest
of Kentucky. Despite virtually no breaks in the cloud cover,
temperatures have managed to climb into the mid and upper 60s across
the region. While a few locations may creep to 70 later this
afternoon/evening, think many areas will remain in the upper 60s.
Therefore, our destabilization will have to take place via low-level
moisture advection, which is ongoing across portions west TN.  Here,
dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s, which should advect northeast
into central KY this evening.  Therefore, despite limited insolation
today, think we will have enough to push SBCAPEs in the 300-700 J/kg
range, perhaps pushing 1000 J/kg across southern KY.

Low-level shear parameters are very impressive given good low-level
turning. Effective SRH values are in excess of 400 m2/s2 across
western TN/eastern AR. Therefore, any storm will have the ability to
rotate. The main complicating factor continues to be storm
mode/coverage, and the effect the current QLCS moving through
western KY/IL/IN will have on storm evolution this evening.  The
near term threat will come from this QLCS now pushing into southern
IN/northern KY. Damaging winds and a few weak tornadoes will be
possible with this activity as it pushes northeast.  There is some
question as to how far east into central KY this activity gets.  The
southern edge has recently slowed, thus do not expect it to cross
portions of central KY.

If indeed central KY remains in the clear from this first QLCS, then
attention will turn to the southwest.  Convection is beginning to
fill in across portions of western TN/eastern AR, where supercells
have begun to develop over the past hour or so within the exit
region of a 110-knot upper-level jet streak.  This activity should
rapidly push northeast into south-central KY this evening. Storm
mode with this round is a bit in question, but semi-discrete
supercells will be possible especially in areas west of I-65 and to
the south of where the current QLCS stalls.  Coordinated with SPC on
the Moderate Risk, thus like the current placement and the main
emphasis on damaging winds (some in excess of 70 mph) and isolated
tornadoes.  Any strong tornado threat will hinge on storm mode once
the convection makes it into southern KY, but a strong tornado
cannot be ruled out across the southwestern CWA given very low
LCLs (around 500m) and impressive low-level shear/helicities.

All this activity will race east and will likely be out of the area
by 5Z or so.  Cooler and drier air will lag the cold front, so
expect overnight lows to remain mild and highs on Thursday to still
climb into the 60s.
.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2015

...Active Weather Continues Into Early Next Week, Heavy Rain Main
Concern...

Given the very active short term period, will leave the previous
discussion in place.  The main long term impact continues to be on
the potential for heavy rainfall Friday into early next week.  Still
looks like 3 to locally 5 inches of rainfall will be possible during
this timeframe, which may result in some flooding especially across
the northern portions of the forecast area.

Previous Discussion:
Christmas Eve Night...

We'll actually see a brief break in the action Christmas Eve night
as the frontal boundary and deeper moisture feed are shunted off to
the SE. Still some question as to how far SE this front will hang up
given the strength of the Bermuda High. ECMWF continues to be an
outlier during this time, bringing overrunning precipitation chances
back into our region before dawn on Christmas Day. Will mention some
chances mainly across south central KY toward dawn. Temps will be a
bit cooler on the north side of this boundary, with upper 40s north
to mid and upper 50s south.

Christmas Day - Sunday...

The overall pattern as we head through the holiday weekend will
feature troughing across the western CONUS, and strong Bermuda High
holding. We'll be under the SW flow aloft, which will help to
continually pump deep moisture along a stalled frontal boundary
waffling near our region. This will ultimately result in a very mild
and very wet period of weather.

Christmas Day continues to trend toward the wetter scenario as
models generally agree on the warm front slowly lifting north over
our region. Precipitation look to at least make it to the Ohio River
by afternoon, then persisting into the overnight. The pattern then
amplifies Saturday and Sunday as a SW CONUS cutoff low digs into the
Rio Grande River Valley and SE Ridge responds. This will shift the
focus of the frontogenetical rainfall more across southern Indiana
where the bulk of the rainfall will fall through the weekend. This
will also bring the warmer temps on the south side of the boundary
with small diurnal ranges. This system will have plenty of moisture
to work with as soundings show precipitable water values rising to
1.3-1.6 inches, generally over the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, rain could be moderate to heavy at times.

Christmas Day highs should range in the upper 50s and low 60s north,
to mid 60s south. Expect highs in the upper 60s and low 70s
Saturday, with a slightly cooler Sunday as the front dips back down
into our region a bit. Will still be mostly in the 60s. Lows during
this time will be quite mild in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Sunday Night - Tuesday...

Confidence lowers during this time as models diverge on how quick
the upper low ejects out of Texas into the Great Lakes. The models
are playing into their typical biases, with the slower ECMWF holding
onto the SW energy, and the GFS blasting it through. Actually like
the ECMWF solution and its support from the GEM as the Bermuda Ridge
could continue to play a factor in slow overall progress. So,
depending on which solution, or some compromise between the two,
occurs we'll either see a final strong surge of showers and storms
on Monday or Tuesday. Will have to watch and see if another round of
strong storms will be possible early next week as some instability
could occur in the warm sector ahead of the passing front.

Overall, data still suggest that around 3-5 inches of rain could
fall between Christmas and Tuesday, with the bulk of it across
southern Indiana. Given the amount of rainfall from recent days and
the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, some minor
flooding could become a concern. Still not overly confident given
the subtle model variability with placement of frontogenetical
precipitation. Will continue to monitor latest trends. Will also
note that this active period of weather will likely push SDF and LEX
higher on the standings of the all time wettest year. SDF ranks 9th
as of Dec 21, and LEX ranks 14th.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2015

Now have a squall line entering southern Illinois. The edge of this
line should stay just north of SDF, but we could see supercells
develop along the lingering back edge that will affect at least the
KBWG/KSDF terminals later this afternoon. Could see a line of storms
develop/merge toward KLEX starting around 00Z. Have put in peak
winds of 40s knots for KSDF/KBWG for now along with IFR conditions,
but the winds could be stronger. Will amend TAFs as necessary this
afternoon.

Cold front driving this convection should push through the terminals
late tonight, with conditions improving around daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>072-
242030-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-SPENCER-NELSON-LARUE-BUTLER-EDMONSON-
HART-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN...
MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH...
BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...
HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE
323 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 /223 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

...TORNADO WATCH 560 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AFFECT MAINLY KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST CORES...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-073>078-081-082-242030-
FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
WASHINGTON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-CLARK-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-GREEN-
TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WILMORE...WINCHESTER...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...
SALEM...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
323 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 /223 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AFFECT MAINLY KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST CORES...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE TASWELL            38.34N 86.55W
12/23/2015  M57 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   PUBLIC

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
402 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW HARDINSBURG        38.49N 86.32W
12/23/2015  M50 MPH          ORANGE             IN   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
405 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ORLEANS             38.65N 86.46W
12/23/2015                   ORANGE             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR ORLEANS.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ079-090>092-KYZ030>032-232200-
FLOYD-JEFFERSON-CLARK-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-
430 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
HARRISON...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...CENTRAL FLOYD...CENTRAL CLARK...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...OLDHAM AND TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM EST...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF MADISON TO 9 MILES NORTH OF PROSPECT
TO 6 MILES EAST OF CORYDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISVILLE...JEFFERSONVILLE...NEW ALBANY...ST. MATTHEWS...SHIVELY...
MADISON...LYNDON...LA GRANGE...PROSPECT...HURSTBOURNE...
GRAYMOOR-DEVONDALE...WINDY HILLS...AUDUBON PARK...ST. REGIS PARK...
WORTHINGTON HILLS...BEECHWOOD VILLAGE...WEST BUECHEL...
BARBOURMEADE...COLDSTREAM AND NORTHFIELD.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3869 8520 3874 8527 3874 8533 3860 8521
      3854 8524 3850 8529 3849 8531 3846 8534
      3819 8567 3816 8612 3847 8572 3861 8563
      3861 8557 3868 8557 3868 8558 3869 8557
      3881 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 259DEG 33KT 3869 8555 3848 8567 3822 8600

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SALEM               38.60N 86.13W
12/23/2015                   WASHINGTON         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MANY TREES DOWN IN THE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY ON
            HIGHWAY 56 NEAR THE SALEM AIRPORT.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
447 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE CHAMBERSBURG       38.47N 86.34W
12/23/2015                   ORANGE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            MINOR ROOF DAMAGE AND AN ALUMINUM CAR PORT
            LIFTED OFF ITS BASE.

&&

MRC