Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
659 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2015

...Heat Threat Decreasing and Flash Flood Threat Increasing...

Storm Threat:

Currently ongoing convection was increasing in strength and coverage
over central KY east of I-65.  As bulk shear increases ahead of an
approaching shortwave in a high CAPE/DCAPE environment, we should
continue to see convection grow upscale through the evening hours.
Also in play are left over boundaries from this morning's IL/MO
storm complex that currently sit over KY and new convective
boundaries from ongoing storms.  These boundaries will likely
interact causing more convection to fire mainly east of I-65 this
evening.  The main threats with these storms will be strong to
damaging winds and flash flooding in areas that see repeated
storms.  Small hail is also possible and has been reported.

The main cold front should sink south tonight with additional rounds
of storms likely as upper level waves ride along the boundary
tonight, Monday, and Monday night.  It is difficult to time each
wave, but the strongest storms should occur during peak heating.
Strong to locally severe storms should continue through late this
evening with lesser rounds of convection overnight/tomorrow morning
and then renewed showers/storms for late Monday afternoon/evening.
Once again these storms will mainly pose a damaging wind and flash
flooding threat.

Flash Flooding Threat:

Issued a Flash Flood Watch in effect through Tues morning.  Multiple
rounds of showers/storms are expected as a sfc front moves south
through the region with several upper level waves passing through as
well.  1 hr FFG is around 1.5 to 1.8 inches over southeast Indiana
and portions of central KY east of I-65 that received heavy rainfall
over the last few days.  Current convection is showing signs of
training in the Bluegrass region so will need to watch storms this
evening for possible flash flood warnings.  In addition to storms
late this afternoon/evening, think that portions of the area could
see flash flooding with additional rounds of storms Monday/Mon Night
as well.

Heat Threat:

The heat threat is decreasing over the area especially over southern
Indiana where clouds and a sfc boundary have kept that area cooler.
Thus, will cancel a portion of the heat advy in southern IN.  Will
let the rest of the heat advy continue through this evening as
places that don't receive storms will likely continue to see heat
indices in the lower 100s.  Temperatures will be cooler for Monday
with precip/clouds around...highs should be in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2015

Look for zonal flow aloft through the middle of the work week, but
some respite from the oppressive heat and humidity as a weak bubble
of surface high pressure settles into the Great Lakes and pushes a
boundary just into the Tennessee Valley. Will hold on to scattered
POPs for Tuesday with just enough energy aloft to keep the front
fairly active. Moderate confidence that the front will be far enough
south to limit POPs to just slight chance over south central
Kentucky. Temps just under climo mid-week, but even more notably the
dewpoints will be down into the lower 60s in many locations.

Friday into the weekend will see more of a NW flow regime as a trof
digs into eastern Canada and a ridge pumps up over the northern
Plains. Residual front could wave back toward our SW zones on
Friday, but will resist ramping up POPs too much until Sunday as a
more robust disturbance dives into the Great Lakes. Temps will
recover to near normal by day, and a couple degrees above by night,
and upper 60s/near 70 dewpoints will end our break from the
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2015

Ongoing storms in central Kentucky not having a direct impact on any
of the TAFs, but will be close enough to initialize LEX with VCTS
this evening. SDF appears to be high and dry for the night, but
there has been just enough of a westward build that to suggest the
hi-res models are on to something as they bring convection in from
western KY later tonight. Therefore will initialize BWG dry, but
bring VCTS in later in the evening.

Main visibility concern toward Monday morning will be in LEX, where
the most rain has fallen recently. GFS MOS guidance shows good
potential for IFR visibility around daybreak, but for now will leave
it as borderline MVFR/IFR until we see how much debris cloudiness is
left behind.

Precip chances will increase through the day on Monday as a
weakening cold front works its way into Kentucky. Not much
confidence as far as convective initiation or evolution, so will not
include any precip in the BWG and LEX TAFs. By the time we account
for the planning period at SDF, there's at least enough confidence
to carry VCTS/CB late afternoon into evening. Will keep conditions
VFR, but brief restrictions can be expected anywhere that convection
has a direct impact.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KYZ029>043-045>049-
     054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>035-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR INZ078-079-091-092.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR INZ090>092.

&&

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-202015-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 /311 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE FROM AROUND 103 TO 107 THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED
STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING...THEREFORE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS OR FLOODING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

AMS/RAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KYZ027-028-053-063-192320-
GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-HART KY-LARUE KY-
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NOLIN AND RIDERS MILL...
  SONORA AND LONE STAR...
  UPTON AND VENTO...
  TALLEY AND HIGH HICKORY...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
71 AND 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THIS STORM WILL GENERATE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8623 3762 8598 3760 8587 3747 8555
      3746 8558 3747 8558 3746 8562 3747 8563
      3746 8564 3744 8566 3736 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 301DEG 27KT 3752 8600

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KYZ054-065-066-192325-
CASEY KY-MARION KY-TAYLOR KY-
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 50
MPH WINDS...

AT 653 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEBANON...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEBANON...
  FINLEY...
  GREENBRIAR...
  PHILLIPSBURG...
  SPURLINGTON AND SALLEETOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THIS STORM WILL GENERATE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 8498 3729 8522 3752 8543 3759 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 323DEG 17KT 3749 8533

SCHOETTMER