Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Fri July 17 2015

Did end up issuing a short fused Flash Flood Watch to account for
the complex of storms diving SE across our CWA over the next few
hours. FFG values are still running low and with pockets of
torrential rain and some training, thought it best to try and give a
heads up to the Flash Flooding potential.

Issued at 836 PM EDT Fri July 17 2015

Have increased coverage of shower and storm chances across our NE
CWA through the late evening hours as clusters of storms over IN
will slide SE over the next several hours. Confidence is not high on
how far SW to extend the highest precipitation chances, but did
increase to chance (40%) for Louisville.

Most concerned about training of several rounds of thunderstorms
from a Madison, IN to Cynthiana, KY line where some hydro issues
might occur due to high PWAT/efficient rain producing airmass.
Confidence is  not high enough on convective evolution to issue a
short fused Flash Flood Watch so will likely handle any hydro
problems with Advisories/Warnings if needed. Will mention heavy rain
threat in an updated HWO.

Previous Update...
Issued at 600 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2015

Visible satellite has been showing some enhancement along and north
of the I-64 corridor over the past couple of hours, and now starting
to see some light returns on radar associated with them. Went ahead
and added iso to widely scattered mention for the next few hours as
the cells push east.

Still watching to our NW and N as a couple of complexes show some
signs of possibly being able to skirt our N and NE CWA. Expect
intensity to diminish as we get into the later evening hours,
however environment would be able to support a few stronger storms
if they are able to hold togehter.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2015

Same synoptic pattern of the last few weeks will continue through
the short term with a sprawling hot ridge over the southern U.S. and
an active westerly stream of moisture and instability over the
northern part of the U.S. from the Plains to the Great Lakes. This
means the Midwest and Ohio Valley are again proned to episodes of
convection, with expanding heat on the southern periphery as well
through this weekend. Our forecast area of central KY and south-
central IN will be on the edge of convection to our north but within
the high heat and humidity from our area on south and west.

Currently, convection is beginning to develop from central OH
through central IN to near STL along an outflow boundary. Steering
flow should keep this convection to our north through this evening.
However, both the GFS and NAM suggest that a few cells could turn
southeast late tonight and/or a few cells develop over south-central
IN and parts of north-central and east-central KY. Will include in
grids. Patchy fog and haze may occur around daybreak, but not bad.

On Saturday and Sunday, the heat and humidity will be here,
especially over the western half of the forecast area. High
temperatures will reach the lower 90s east and mid 90s west both
days, with lows in the 70s at night. Surface dewpoints Saturday
afternoon should be in the lower to mid 70s, with mid 70s Sunday. As
a result, maximum afternoon heat indices both days will be around
105 and some areas could see 105-109 over west parts of central KY
Sunday afternoon when surface dewpoints should be slightly higher.
Thus, will issue a heat advisory starting Saturday at noon EDT
continuing til 8 pm Sunday evening for the western half of central
KY. For now, will not issue an advisory over most of east-central
KY, where maximum indices should top out in the upper 90s to lower
100s, although we will monitor this through the weekend.

As for precip potential, Sunday looks to have a slightly better
chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms than Saturday. Model
soundings show better instability and higher precipitable water
values on Sunday vs. Saturday. Cannot rule out a slight chance
Saturday (roughly 20 pct), with a slightly higher chance Sunday
afternoon, especially over northern areas closer to the main
corridor of instability. Any storm would produce brief torrential
rain. Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy, hot, and humid weekend.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2015

...Stormy Monday-Tuesday...Sultry Summertime Airmass rest of week...

Sunday night through Tue night...

Well...long term begins with Herculean 596m ridge over the Natural
State keeping polar jet along the northern periphery.  Several
frontal systems will slide off the front side of the ridge towards
CWA...but overall high humidity for next week.

The upper trough digs through the Great Lakes on Monday and drops a
frontal boundary near the OH River and is stuck for 48 hours. This
will bring unsettled weather across CWA Monday and Tuesday. MU CAPE
of 2500 j/kg and higher, LIS -4 to -6 C, PWATS are 2 inches and weak
steering flow of 15 kts will bring threat of storms with very heavy
rainfall. Increased POPS to likely across eastern 1/2 of the area on
Monday and increased POPS Tuesday across the Srn tier as the frontal
boundary is still ensconced across the srn 1/2 of area.

Wednesday-Friday...

On Wed and Thu...elongated ridge across from Lone State state thru
pelican state to peach state before ridge amplifies on Friday
northward. Ridge bulges north to Great lakes ahead of potent wave
coming out Glacier NP to Yellowstone NP. Thus...front will move
south of CWA on Wed and will be POP-less for rest of week with low
90s and lows around 70. Typical summertime weather.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 713 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2015

Main aviation concerns for this evening will be chances for
convection at SDF/LEX, and then potential for BR/HZ overnight. A few
showers have popped up between SDF/LEX this evening, so will mention
VC wording at LEX to start the new cycle, however question remains
whether there will be new development along an outflow boundary
dropping south out of the IL/IN/OH storms. Will stay optimistic at
SDF/LEX (along with some hi-res modeling) for now, however will
amend as necessary if T-storm coverage does become more apparent.

Otherwise, there is a signal for at least MVFR BR/HZ through the
overnight hours. Most concerned at BWG where winds will go light and
variable. Enough of a SSW wind at SDF/LEX should keep visibilities
from going too low. SSW winds pick up again after sunrise on Saturdy
with Sct cu around 4-5 k feet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 5 AM EDT Saturday FOR KYZ031>037-040>043-
     049.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday to 8 PM EDT /7
     PM CDT/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>035-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 5 AM EDT Saturday FOR INZ077>079-092.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday to 8 PM EDT /7
     PM CDT/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038-045-053-061>063-070>074-
190045-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SPENCER KY-
NELSON KY-LARUE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...TAYLORSVILLE...
BARDSTOWN...HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW
845 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 /745 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ SATURDAY TO
8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
PUSH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 105 AND 110 EACH DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...AND INCREASING CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL BE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ036-037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-190045-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...
STANFORD...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
845 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 /745 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
PUSH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/JDG

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