Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Louisville, KY

304 
WWUS53 KLMK 132329
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
729 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYC053-057-140005-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-150714T0005Z/
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
629 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CLINTON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 705 PM CDT...

AT 628 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST 
OF BURKESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY...WATERVIEW...BAKERTON...GRIDER...LESLIE...
CLOYDS LANDING...ARAT...CLAYWELL...ELLINGTON...WILLIS CREEK...BOW...
JUDIO...STALCUP...TANBARK...MODOC...DECIDE...KETTLE...LITTRELL AND
GREEN GROVE.

ROTATION IS INCREASING IN THIS STORM. THE STORM WILL NEED TO BE 
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 8550 3673 8547 3674 8552 3686 8558
      3685 8556 3687 8551 3692 8546 3692 8528
      3690 8528 3689 8526 3662 8508 3661 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 333DEG 17KT 3684 8546

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

13

488 
WWUS53 KLMK 132344
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYC053-057-140005-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-150714T0005Z/
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
644 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CLINTON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 705 PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURKESVILLE...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY...ARAT...CLAYWELL...ELLINGTON...WILLIS CREEK...
BOW...JUDIO...STALCUP...TANBARK...MODOC...DECIDE...KETTLE...
LITTRELL...GREEN GROVE...PEYTONSBURG...FROGUE...HEGIRA...ASHLOCK AND
HOBART.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING 
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. 

&&

LAT...LON 3669 8550 3673 8547 3674 8552 3684 8557
      3687 8550 3690 8547 3682 8521 3662 8508
      3662 8530 3661 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 333DEG 17KT 3678 8543

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$
JDG

394 
WWUS53 KLMK 132350
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYC053-057-140005-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-150714T0005Z/
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
650 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CLINTON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 705 PM CDT...

AT 648 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURKESVILLE...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS CREEK...BOW...JUDIO...STALCUP...TANBARK...MODOC...DECIDE...
KETTLE...LITTRELL...GREEN GROVE...PEYTONSBURG...FROGUE...ASHLOCK...
HEGIRA...HOBART...SHIPLEY...HIGHWAY...BROWNS CROSSROADS...WAGO AND
HUNTERSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3662 8544 3669 8550 3673 8547 3674 8552
      3677 8554 3681 8555 3689 8544 3682 8522
      3662 8511 3661 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 333DEG 17KT 3675 8541

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$
JDG

832 
WWUS53 KLMK 132359
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
759 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYC053-057-140005-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-150714T0005Z/
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
659 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 705 PM CDT...

AT 656 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURKESVILLE...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED A BUNCH OF 
TREE DAMAGE IN THE MARROWBONE AREA.   

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MODOC...DECIDE...KETTLE...LITTRELL...GREEN GROVE...PEYTONSBURG...
FROGUE...ASHLOCK...HEGIRA...HOBART...SHIPLEY...HIGHWAY...BROWNS
CROSSROADS...WAGO AND HUNTERSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3669 8550 3673 8547 3674 8552 3676 8553
      3680 8521 3662 8511 3662 8530 3661 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 333DEG 17KT 3671 8539

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$
JDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 633 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2015

Did a quick forecast update to clear the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
from our northern counties.  Essentially have trimmed the watch from
the NE to the SW, but kept areas generally west and south of the
outflow boundary in the watch.  As mentioned in the previous update,
the highest risk for severe weather over the next 1-2 hours will be
over Adair, Cumberland, Clinton, Russell counties.  Some additional
backbuilding is being observed as far NW as LaRue county.  So that
activity will likely "train" southeast along the boundary and also
produce a flood threat.  Radar estimates on precipitation will
likely be hail contaminated to an extent with this supercell.
However, 1-3 inches of rainfall will be likely in a corridor from
roughly Hodgenville to Albany Kentucky.

Issued at 553 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2015

Expansive bow echo continue to push through southeastern KY late
this afternoon.  In its wake, a NW-SE oriented outflow boundary
extends from near Elizabethtown to near Russellville.  Renewed
convection is forming along this boundary given a relatively good
flow aloft and bulk shear values of over 40kts.  A strong CAPE
gradient was noted from northern IL southeastward through central
KY.  CAPE values to th east were in the 1500-2000 J/KG range, but
out across west KY, the values were in the 3000-4000 J/KG range.
Additional convective development is expected along this CAPE
boundary over the next few hours.  Given the effective shear and
buoyancy, discrete bowing segments and some temporary supercellular
structures seems likely.  Damaging winds and very large hail would
be the primary threats...especially across our SE Lake Cumberland
region.

No changes to the headlines at this time, though we probably could
start dropping the northern ends of the watch in the next hour or
so.  We'll see a break in the action this evening.  However, things
will likely become quite active again as convection developing to
our NW will likely congeal into a large MCS and plow through KY
later tonight.  More details on that threat later.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
...Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential continue...

Difficult forecast in the short term with opportunities for severe
storms and flooding. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #410 remains in
effect until 8 pm EDT for the entire area, but will begin trimming
northern counties behind the ongoing squall line soon and will be
taking a hard look at far west counties as well, as western
development has been slow to materialize.

Short term models are all over the place with next round of storms,
so confidence is not high on the overnight scenario.  12Z run of the
HRRR that handled the current bow echo best also seems to have the
best handle on the overnight precip.  This focuses on an existing
boundary running from west central IN to near Louisville where the
most recent development has occurred. If this plays out as planned,a
short wave accompanying a speed max showing up on satellite between
Peoria and the Quad Cities will provide the upper support for storm
development along the aforementioned surface boundary.

The bad news with this scenario is that the axis of precip would
then line up NW-SE.  With SE steering winds, this results in
training storms and high potential for excessive rains of several
inches along the axis.  Given the divergent model tendencies with
this, however, confidence is low on removing any of the area from
the Flash Flood Watch, so will continue with the entire CWA through
the existing time frame.  Antecedent soil conditions make areas east
of I-65 the highest threat, but with mid-upper 70 dewpoints, any
storm is capable of blinding rain and copious rains that could cause
true flash flooding.

Tuesday's weather is so reliant upon where overnight precip occurs
that confidence on details here are again low, other than to say
that storms are again expected, but the strongest should be confined
south and east of this afternoon's main area.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2015

This discussion will be kept short as the main focus today is the
ongoing severe weather. The region will remain in northwest flow
aloft on Wednesday. By the end of the week the upper level ridge
will begin to build back in from the southwest. At the surface high
pressure will build in from the north Wednesday and will remain over
the area through Thursday.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday under the influence
of the high pressure. Dewpoints will lower back into the mid 60s by
Thursday morning. However, this will be short lived as they will
increase again into the weekend. A couple of waves will ride through
the upper level flow around the periphery of the ridge this weekend.
As usual timing and coverage along with placement is in question
with these storms. The best coverage Friday and Saturday will likely
be across the northeastern portion of the area. Sunday the chances
may spread back to the southwest.

The other concern this weekend will be the heat. Temperatures will
top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday through Sunday. Heat
index values will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.
This could pose an issue to sensitive individuals.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2015

Complex forecast for tonight as much of it hinges on convective
develop to our northwest this evening and late tonight.  Currently
have a complex of storms moving south-central and southeastern KY.
This activity will move southeastward into TN over the next few
hours.  So this evening, VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals.

Looking at the short term models, quite a few of them continue to
suggest that convection across northern MO, southern WI, and central
IL will continue grow upscale this evening and congeal into another
MCS.  By the looks of the CAPE gradient, this developing MCS looks
to slide southeastward into KY late tonight.

For now, feel that convection will likely hold off until around
14/03-04Z and then affect the terminals between 14/04-08Z.  Plan on
carrying a VCTS group after 14/04Z with a tempo group highlighting
the impacts of convection between 14/04-08Z.  Most likely will see
temporary drops to IFR as the convection moves through along with
winds of up to 40kts.  We plan to monitor things closely this
evening and will likely amend the forecast as needed as convective
trends become more clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JBS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
451 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-142100-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
451 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 /351 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT / 7 PM CDT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. REDEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING FROM WESTERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DROP EVEN MORE RAIN...WITH THE THREAT OF MULTIPLE STORMS DUMPING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ON SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN ALREADY WET GROUNDS FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH EACH
ROUND OF STORMS.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100 TO 105 POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 E GRADYVILLE          37.08N 85.38W
07/13/2015  M1.75 INCH       ADAIR              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 E BLACK GNAT          37.31N 85.40W
07/13/2015  M1.25 INCH       TAYLOR             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARLISLE                38.31N 84.04W
07/13/2015                   NICHOLAS           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY AND THE
            ENTIRE COUNTY ALONG WITH POWER LINES.

&&

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               38.04N 84.46W
07/13/2015                   FAYETTE            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY.

&&

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENSBURG              37.26N 85.50W
07/13/2015                   GREEN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
            COUNTY.

&&

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOB LICK               37.08N 85.68W
07/13/2015                   METCALFE           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

SZAPPANOS