Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2015

...Multiple Rounds of Storms. Flooding and Severe Threat Likely...

The overall upper level weather pattern remains relatively unchanged
over the next 36 hours, meaning conditions are ripe for more of the
same weather we've been experiencing the past several days - i.e.,
warm and humid with heavy rains, flash flooding, and damaging winds.

A dome of high pressure centered over Texas continues to sit and
spin, recycling warm, humid air over the Mississippi, Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. A series of short waves in the upper level flow
north of the ridge will be diving into the Ohio Valley on northwest
flow, providing the energy needed to kick of numerous
thunderstorms.  A nearly stationary surface front extending from
Chicago to Cincinnati will provide the focus for the development of
some of these storms...which will then drift to the south into our
area. When these Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) develop in
northwest flow, they have the capability of producing torrential
rains like those that occurred this morning in the Louisville metro
area, as well as long-tracking squall lines that that produce
widespread wind damage.

While confidence is high this scenario will occur, the problem is
that determining just exactly when and where an MCS develops and
tracks is difficult to nail down.  In essence, it becomes a "Don't
shoot until you see the whites of their eyes" type of forecast.  For
now, it looks as though there will NOT be a repeat of this morning's
storms in southern Indiana or central Kentucky tonight, but that
later Monday and Monday night, an MCS could affect us, hence the SPC
Day 2 Moderate Risk. The threat for training storms with flash
flooding would return at the end of any MCS track late Monday or
Monday night through parts of the area. Given all of the things that
could change upstream in the next 12-24 hours though, will hold off
on issuing a Flash Flood Watch, as spatial confidence remains
low.

While a tornado threat cannot be ruled out during the period, the
most favorable low level wind conditions for these should remain
outside of our area, focusing primarily along the surface front to
our north and east.  That being said, any supercells that may
develop in the warm sector over us have an abundance of available
potential energy to work with, which could overcome the lack of
low-level speed and directional shear.

The bottom line over for the start of the workweek is to check the
forecast and observed conditions often to maintain good situation
awareness.  Ignorance is not bliss when it comes to severe
weather.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 41 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2015

...Elevated Chances for Severe Weather Tuesday...

The Monday night MCS is expected to weaken/move out of the region
early enough on Tuesday morning to allow the atmosphere to become
extremely unstable by afternoon. By afternoon a 50kt mid level speed
max will come in from the west along with upper level divergence
associated with an upper jet flowing from the Midwest to
Mid-Atlantic. Along with the 5H vort coming in in the afternoon, a
surface cold front will swing in as low pressure moves southeast out
of Michigan. Then, add to the mix leftover boundaries from the
Monday night/early Tuesday morning convection and possible
differential heating zones from MCS debris clouds, and there should
be plenty of foci for storms. Wet bulb zero heights will start the
day rather elevated but will sink enough by afternoon such that
large hail will be a possibility with the stronger storms. Damaging
winds will also be possible given the brisk flow aloft. Precipitable
water values will not be particularly high for this time of year,
and soundings show a fair amount of dry air in the column,
suggesting initial storm development will be scattered. It also
lends some confidence in large hail and strong gusty winds making it
to the ground. Synoptic scale low level shear isn't overly
impressive for tornadoes, but there will certainly be enough
mesoscale boundaries and storm interactions to make local spin-ups
possible. At this time it looks like individual cells will form over
central Kentucky that will gel into a line and rush to the southeast
through southern Kentucky.

For the rest of the week upper ridging will help to keep storms at
bay. That's not to say that we couldn't see a few pop up in the heat
of the afternoons, but widespread storm events are not expected. The
best chance of storms will come by the end of the forecast period as
a wave is expected to slide southeast down the edge of the southern
Plains upper ridge.

Though dry weather will be welcome, it also means we're going to
heat up. With such green vegetation in the region (for July) it's
going to be rather humid and uncomfortable as well. By Friday into
the weekend afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s with
overnight lows only in the low and mid 70s. Heat index readings
could reach the 100-105 degree range Friday, Saturday, and possibly
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 153 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2015

Thunderstorms currently refiring along surface boundaries between
SDF and BWG left over from this morning's thunderstorms.  Another
area of weaker convection is northwest of SDF in SW Indiana. Skies
currently mostly clear invof LEX thanks to clearing out of morning
convection. Storms will be drifting southeast in relatively weak
upper level flow, keeping all 3 TAF sites in line for VCTS.  Given
the hit/miss nature of the storms, will update with more definitive
timing after storms develop in afternoon heating.

Overnight, have included 4SM BR at all sites, but very likely that
vsbys could go lower at SDF due to the extreme rains today in
eastern Louisville. If R+ occurs at BWG and LEX, will likely see
lower vsbys there as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........JBS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-131945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 /242 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WHILE NOT
LIKELY...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER
AS WELL. LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
WEATHER HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN
ALREADY WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH EACH ROUND OF STORMS.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100 TO 105 POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JBS/13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

KYZ040-041-048-122245-
FAYETTE KY-JESSAMINE KY-WOODFORD KY-
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
HALF INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF VERSAILLES...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEXINGTON...
  VETERANS PARK...
  FAYETTE MALL...
  U K ARBORETUM...
  DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL...
  BEAUMONT PARK AND HOLIDAY HILLS...
  BRANNON AND CATNIP...
  CENTERVILLE AND COLETOWN...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
81 AND 87.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
104 AND 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 8430 3786 8448 3807 8478 3817 8472
      3814 8464 3812 8463 3812 8465 3811 8464
      3814 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 304DEG 29KT 3807 8461

EER