Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 354 is in effect until 1 AM
EDT/Midnight CDT. Two areas of concern for the moment. Scattered
storms have developed along residual outflow just south of an E-town
to Somerset KY line. These storms are in an environment
characterized by 3000-4000 J/KG of MLCAPE and marginal effective
shear values in the 30-35 knot range. Expect storms to vary between
pulse and semi-organized in the marginal shear environment, however
will still be capable of localized damaging winds, excessive cloud
to ground lightning, and perhaps an instance or two of marginally
severe hail. Brief heavy downpours will accompany any t-storm.

Will also watch upstream where a larger cluster of storms is
organizing near St. Louis and will gradually head toward our CWA
later this evening. Confidence is low on how strong storms will be
when they arrive, however given the amount of instability in place
feel there will be at least some lingering severe threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015

...Multiple rounds of storms expected with severe potential this
evening and again Fri evening...

Complex forecast with limited confidence as multiple convective
complexes are likely to affect the Ohio Valley through Friday night.
Earlier MCS pushed an outflow boundary as far south as the Bluegrass
Parkway by late morning, but SW flow has largely washed out that
boundary. Clouds thinned quickly enough over west-central Kentucky
that the atmosphere has recovered fairly well, and at 18Z moisture
convergence, dewpoint gradient, and even a weak pressure trof
suggest that the effective boundary is very near Interstate 64.
However, AMDAR soundings show a weakening but still strong inversion
between 900-800 mb so there is no convection yet.

As we progress into the evening, the inversion should finally weaken
enough to fire convection by 21-22Z. Mid-level winds near 40 kt will
provide decent speed shear for this time of the summer, so the main
threat will be damaging winds. However, all severe weather modes
remain in play. Southward extent of precip chances and strong/severe
threat may be a bit conservative yet, but the greatest potential for
severe weather is in north central Kentucky.

This convection should diminish by around midnight, perhaps even
sooner if cold pool processes take over. Another MCS will dive at us
from the northwest, and should be arriving to find a less favorable
environment by daybreak Fri.

Look for another lull either side of midday Fri as low-level inflow
weakens. Renewed severe threat develops in the heat of the
afternoon. Likely/categorical POPs Fri afternoon into Fri evening as
the cold front pushes through. Poorly defined surface low will ride
ENE along the front late Friday, and if a tighter closed low can
interact with the boundary and juicy atmosphere, SVR wind/hail
potential is decent and there will even be a non-zero tornado
potential. Tricky max temp forecast as it is dependent on how much
daytime convection develops. Will continue to ride just above climo
in the upper 80s most spots.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015

Saturday...

Cold front will be exiting our CWA to the east on Saturday morning,
and amplified trough will be firmly established over the eastern
CONUS. Expect lingering scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder mainly east of I-65 with steep low and mid lapse rates, and
what looks to be another shortwave embedded within the parent
trough. Freezing levels will be quite low by Sat evening, so can't
rule out some very small hail with any iso to widely scattered
(20-30% coverage) shower. Highs will struggle under this much cooler
airmass as temps only top out in the low and mid 70s east to mid and
perhaps upper 70s west.

Saturday Night through Sunday Evening...

Surface high becomes more established Saturday night, with dry NW
flow aloft in place. With dew points falling well into the 50s and
decent radiational cooling conditions, below normal temperatures are
in store. Expect most readings in the mid and upper 50s. Dry weather
continues Sunday under the same pattern with warmer highs mostly in
the 75 to 80 range.

Early Monday Morning through Tuesday Night...

As we move into the new work week, NW flow aloft looks to dominate
the pattern as several disturbances move through the flow. This will
keep an active period of showers and t-storms with reinforcing shots
of cooler air each time. The first of these waves will dig across
the upper Midwest and into the lower Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms ahead of the associated
surface low and cold front could arrive as early as the pre-dawn
hours across southern IN on Monday. Scattered coverage is then
expected to work SE across the CWA ahead of the front through the
day. Isolated to widely scattered activity will linger into the late
evening mainly across the southern CWA. Highs around 80 and lows in
the 60s are expected.

Main trough axis should be working eastward on Tuesday with main
focus for continue Iso to Sct coverage focused across our SE CWA.
Expect mostly dry Tuesday night. Temps will be a bit warmer in the
upper 70s and low 80s Tuesday with slightly milder lows Tuesday
night in the mid 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday...

Upper flow becomes more zonal through mid week supporting a
moderation of temperatures back more solidly into the 80s.
Precipitation chance confidence is quite low as timing of individual
perturbations and the placement of a boundary nearly parallel to the
upper flow will be key during this time. Will keep mention in the
chance range (30-50%).

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015

VFR conditions and light south winds, with mainly mid/high debris
clouds from earlier MCS. Low-confidence forecast in terms of late
afternoon/evening convection, as placement is quite uncertain even
though confidence is high that something will happen...somewhere.
Outflow boundary is closest to LEX, but as clouds continue to thin
there is still potential for the residual boundary over southern
Indiana to be the effective boundary later this afternoon.

That being said, will likely stick with the earlier theme of VCTS
for late afternoon/evening, and then a lull with mid-level debris
overnight. Hi-res models show potential for another MCS rolling in
from the NW around daybreak Friday, but again in a weakening state
especially if we are worked over this evening. Will likely introduce
another period of at least VCSH during the morning hours. Best
chances will be at SDF and LEX. Brief MVFR conditions, perhaps even
IFR visibilities, will be possible if stronger convection makes a
direct impact. However, the operative word is brief, and confidence
in the timing is too low to include it.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
339 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-261945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
339 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 /239 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL... AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
433 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ024-252205-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-
433 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARDINSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 8623 3768 8635 3781 8654 3789 8652
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 282DEG 18KT 3781 8641

ZT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
526 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ064>066-076>078-252310-
ADAIR KY-CASEY KY-GREEN KY-METCALF KY-RUSSELL KY-TAYLOR KY-
526 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL ADAIR...NORTHERN METCALFE...NORTHERN
  RUSSELL...SOUTHEASTERN GREEN...SOUTHERN CASEY AND SOUTHERN TAYLOR
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8562 3727 8555 3716 8484 3712 8490
      3705 8490 3699 8483 3695 8490 3696 8494
      3694 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 283DEG 36KT 3713 8520

ZT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ023-024-026-027-252320-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-GRAYSON KY-HANCOCK KY-OHIO KY-
549 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 546 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF HARDINSBURG...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON...
  SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND SOUTHWESTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8671 3760 8627 3758 8627 3745 8639
      3762 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 297DEG 26KT 3760 8652

ZT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>