Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY.  Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.

The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with.  Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it.  The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary.  Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.

Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent.  However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone).  This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization.  The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.

That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO.  The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z.  The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low.  Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight.  If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65.  Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.

The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions.  Can't completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong.  Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times.  Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015

Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us.  That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.  The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX.  Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better.  Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.

Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight.  However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now.  Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.

Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in.  VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-029>043-049-221945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-
SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-CLARK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...WINCHESTER
334 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 /234 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK AS DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON TUESDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ026>028-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-221945-
OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
FORT KNOX...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
334 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 /234 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK AS DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON TUESDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/RJS

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