Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
539 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 537 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015

Scattered to numerous storms continue across the region late this
afternoon. We are seeing a transition now from the stronger isolated
storms to more of an issue with training storms. Flooding/flash
flooding is expected to become more of a concern over the next few
hours as these storms train. The storms have 2-3" per hour rates,
which can easily overwhelm storms drains, particularly in the metro
areas. A few strong wind gusts will continue to be possible as well.
Updated the grids to increase pops over the next few hours.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Updated at 330 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015

In the near term, differential heating combined with a very
moist/unstable atmosphere has led to the development of convection
across the region.  The convection is focused currently in two
clusters, one along and north of the I-64 corridor from southern
Indiana into northern Kentucky, while the other is focused down
across the Bowling Green area.  Over the remainder of the afternoon,
we expect convection to continue to develop.  Torrential rainfall,
gusty winds and small hail will be the main weather hazards.  The
training of cells may lead to some hydrologic issues in some areas
and we will be keeping an eye on this.  The strongest storms over
the next few hours will likely be across southern and south-central
KY where the northeastward moving storms will interact with an
increasingly unstable atmosphere.  This area would generally be
defined as areas along and south of the Bluegrass and Western KY
Parkways.  Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90
are expected, but storms moving through the region will likely knock
temperatures back into the low 80s.

For Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
diminish in intensity as we loose diurnal heating.  The latest
guidance continues to show a frontal boundary stalling out across
the region overnight.  This feature combined with the nocturnal
low-level jet may result in additional showers and storms developing
tonight.  A mid-level vorticity maximum out ahead of the remnants of
Bill is progged to move across the region late tonight, which would
aid in convective development.  For now, we plan on letting PoPs
ramp downward this evening and then ramp back up late tonight toward
dawn on Friday.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings cooling
into the lower 70s.

For Friday/Friday night, the upper ridge that has been in place to
our south is forecast to break down as the remnants of Bill track
closer to the region.  Ongoing convection will likely be in progress
during the morning hours on Friday.  This activity will likely
diminish somewhat as the low-level jet axis veers back to the west
and the mid-level vort lobe pushes east.  Airmass recovery will
likely occur during the afternoon and we should see an uptick in
convective activity.  Anomalously moist PWATs will be above 2 inches
and warm cloud depths of over 4km are likely.  Torrential rainfall
and gusty winds will be possible with any strong convection that
develops again.  Have gone with the cooler side of the guidance for
tomorrow as clouds and precipitation will likely keep temperatures
down somewhat.  Highs in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid 80s
in the south look reasonable.  With the remnants of Bill arriving
late Friday night, widespread convection with heavy rainfall is
expected across much of the region.  For this period, have increased
PoPs given the relative good model agreement.

As for rainfall amounts, we expect 1-3 inches of rainfall from this
afternoon through Friday night across the region.  Current forecast
has the heaviest rainfall in a swath along the Ohio River with
lesser amounts across our southeastern areas.  This in very close
agreement with WPC QPF and the OHRFC QPF fields.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015

...Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bill To Arrive Saturday...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature persistent upper-level ridging across the south/southeastern
CONUS, with the Ohio Valley remaining on the periphery of this
ridge.  This will allow for multiple disturbances to ride through
the flow aloft, including the remnants of what once was Tropical
Storm Bill which will bring several rounds of showers/storms to the
region through the extended.

Saturday will begin with the remnants of Bill impacting the region.
A seasonably high slug of moisture will accompany this system, as
PWATS climb well above two inches.  Luckily, the timing seems to be
rather unfavorable to promote organized severe weather as it
appears the clouds/precip should enter into the region before
heating can be maximized.  850mb winds will increase to 40-50 knots
in response to the approaching disturbance.  Therefore, stronger
winds will be just off the surface and even mediocre convection
could mix down some stronger gusts.  Additionally, the stronger
winds off the surface will help increase low-level shear which could
aid in some storm rotation, conditional upon sufficient instability
developing.  These threats will be something to monitor, but really
think the timing of the cloud cover and expected rain shield will
really limit any widespread severe threat.

The main threat with this system will be the heavy rainfall which
may lead to some localized flooding issues.  Debated putting up a
Flash Flood Watch, but just not sure how widespread flash flooding
will be at this time.  3-hour guidance ranges from 2 to 3.5 inches
across the area currently, but this will likely go down in coming
days as rain falls Friday/Friday night.  While the rain will be
heavy at times, the lack of instability may limit the convective
flare to much of the rainfall and it may be a more stratiform precip
with perhaps some localized areal flooding.  Also, the event is
still 48 hours away, so there is still some time to nail down
details.  For all of these reasons, will continue with the ESF and
hold off on any products for now.  On Saturday into Saturday night,
rainfall amounts look to range from 1-2 inches areawide.

For the remainder of the long term, the flow aloft will turn more to
the northwest as a strong ridge builds into the southern CONUS.  A
weak frontal boundary will push into portions of IN/OH during the
day on Sunday, sliding into north-central KY Sunday evening.
Guidance suggests we will become quite unstable ahead of the
boundary on Sunday, but will likely have a decent cap to overcome.
Therefore, will limit coverage to 30-40 percent at this time.  Any
storm that develops in this strongly unstable environment could
become strong to severe.

The latest guidance suite suggests this boundary will stall
somewhere near the Ohio Valley Monday through at least Wednesday of
next week.  It appears this front will remain close enough to the
better mid-level flow of 30-50 knots, promoting the threat for
strong to severe MCSs to track through the region.  Just how strong
these get will depend on the time of day they come through and just
how strong each individual wave is, but the overall synoptic setup
is there for some active weather mainly across the northern half of
the CWA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 340 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015

Differential heating and a moist atmospheric profile will lead to
heavy rainfall with diurnally driven convection over the next 24
hours.  The remnants of tropical storm Bill will move into the area
Friday night and pass through the region on Saturday and into
Saturday night.

Our current forecast projections show area wide basin average
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches.  Locally higher amounts of 5+ inches in
some isolated areas can not be ruled out.  This rainfall is expected
to fall from this afternoon through Sunday morning.

Soil conditions across the region vary greatly given the scattered
diurnally driven rainfall of the last few days.  Soil moisture
values are fairly high across southern Indiana and portions of north
central KY from recent rains.  These soil moisture values will
increase over the next day as additional convection develops.  Soils
are expected to become saturated over the weekend as the remnants
of Bill push through the region.

Current flash flood guidance indicates that we can take about 2-3
inches of rain over a 2-6 hour period, while 24 hour flash flood
values of 4+ inches were noted in the guidance.

Currently we have a hydrologic outlook (ESFLMK) product in effect.
The expected rainfall over the next 72 hours may result in
hydrologic issues over portions of our region.  Localized flooding
will be possible and quick rises on area creeks and streams are
likely. However deterministic and ensemble guidance does not
indicate that river flooding will be particularly widespread at this
time.  Should these ideas change, flash flood watches may be
required in future forecast issuances.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015

Convective temperatures are being reached at the moment and
scattered convection is developing across the region.  The most
coverage is expected to be across the Bluegrass region of KY
affecting the KLEX this afternoon.  Some additional convection over
west-central TN will also move northeast and may affect the KBWG
terminal this afternoon.  The latest guidance continues to be in
agreement that the convection will diminish after sunset and some
light fog could be an issue at the terminals overnight.  There is
also a signal in the data that suggests a minor wave out ahead of
Bill will approach the region tonight, possibly firing some
additional convection toward dawn Friday.

For this package, we plan on running with VFR conditions prevailing
this afternoon/evening with thunderstorms in vicinity of the
terminals.  Current thinking is that MVFR visibilities will be seen
at KBWG/KLEX after 19/09Z through about 19/13-14Z.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: Medium
Winds:      High
T-storms:   Medium

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-192000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
348 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 /248 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
OVER THE REGION...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS OR FLOODING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

MJ/KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

INZ077-182250-
WASHINGTON IN-
620 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAIN...AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 616 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SALEM...
  HIGHLAND...
  CANTON AND HARRISTOWN...
  GEORGETOWN AND SOUTH BOSTON...
  NEW PHILADELPHIA AND BUNKER HILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 8589 3870 8589 3864 8589 3864 8588
      3852 8587 3849 8626 3864 8626 3876 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 247DEG 31KT 3857 8616

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW OXFORD            38.25N 84.59W
06/18/2015                   SCOTT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ALONG LONG LICK PIKE WITH VEHICLES
            NOT ABLE TO GET THROUGH.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

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