Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT Sat May 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 30 2015

As of mid afternoon, surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
near St Louis with an upper level shortwave trough across northern
Arkansas and southern Missouri. After a clean morning, afternoon
readings in the mid/upper 80s combined with dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s and weak lapse rates yielded SBCAPE of about 1500 J/kg
across central KY and southern IN. A belt of higher winds in the
mid/upper levels is resulting in effective shear of around 25 kts.
As a result, scattered pulse showers/storms have tracked south to
north through parts of the area.

For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, plan on
showers/storms to continue to intermittently track through the area
until instability wanes with the loss of daytime heating.
Environment does support a few stronger storms but organized severe
weather risk is low at this point (higher to our west/northwest).
Main threat would be heavy rainfall and gusty/damaging winds.

Later this evening the low passes to our north and we'll see showers
dissipate west to east. Wrap around clouds are expected to begin to
push in overnight, along with slightly cooler air. Lows tonight will
vary from upper 50s to low 60s in the northwest, to the mid/upper
60s across the southeast, Lake Cumberland region.

Sunday's temperatures and precipitation forecast a bit more tricky
as we'll have lower clouds/stratus impacting parts of the area.
This should keep highs in the upper 60s to 70s, especially across
southern IN and northern KY, notably cooler compared to recent
days. However, the front will likely hang up across the KY/TN
border and as another upper wave passes, scattered afternoon
showers/storms will be possible. Thinking that the coverage and
chances will be comparatively lower than today, so kept POPs in th
30-40 percent range. Across those areas, temperatures may rise
into the upper 70s to near 80 as well.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat May 30 2015

Models have slowed the timing a little with upper trough becoming a
closed low to our west at the start of the period. With the earlier
slowing, the band of precip also looks to stick around longer than
the models were forecasting 12 hours ago. As this is a sudden
chance, do not want to go all in for a high pop forecast for the day
Monday and even Monday night. Thus have capped pops at 30% right
along our southeastern border Monday and 20% in our east Monday
night. Both periods should be cool with highs 5-10 degrees below
normal.

The slower solution becomes a problem further into the week as well,
and have a small chance for showers again just in our east for now.
Temperatures should remain below normal for Tuesday as well, and the
forecast beyond that still has a low confidence based on these
difficult to forecast closed low locations. For now have continued
the thinking of a warmer end to the work week with a little better
chance for diurnal showers/storms areawide.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 110 PM EDT Sat May 30 2015

Scattered to numerous showers with some embedded thunder will pass
over SDF/BWG/LEX through early this evening. Some of this activity
could be strong, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds the main
threat, reducing conditions to MVFR briefly. Tried to reflect
greatest expected coverage and confidence with tempo group.

Otherwise, front will pass through later this evening, and winds
will become southwesterly. Showers may linger through about 06z,
after which wrap around stratus deck will begin to pass over.
Upstream observations show this in the 1500 to 2000 ft, and forecast
soundings support this approach as well. It's possible though the
clouds could brush just northwest of the TAF sites, especially at
LEX. But for now brought in a period of fuel-alternate MVFR ceilings
by 12z Sunday.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Medium
Visibility: High
Winds:      High
T-storm:    Medium

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........ZT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORR TO TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
338 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-311945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
338 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 /238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

ZT/RJS

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