Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave rotating up through
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Atmosphere is moderately unstable,
however mid level inversion evident on NAM soundings and verified by
AMDAR is limiting updrafts above 15-20 K feet. Mid level lapse rates
are expected to remain weak through the afternoon/evening.

Showers and storms will continue to lift NNE as the entire focus
shifts slowly east through the evening. Storms are already shutting
off from the west as a subtle front moves through the region and
subsidence behind the wave takes over. So, will hold onto
categorical pops east of I-65 through around sunset.

Expecting a pretty quiet overnight, although an isolated shower or
storm may scoot along and north of the I-64 corridor around and just
after Midnight. This would associated with another weaker PV anomaly
scooting through the flow. Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s as
SW winds stay up just a bit. There is some concern for fog potential
given the moist low level airmass and lighter winds. However,
stratocu deck has potential to develop which would be another
limitng factor. Overall, confidence is too low to include mention at
this time.

Wednesday morning should start out mostly dry with any isolated to
widely scattered showers (iso-storm) confinded to our far south and
east. Our NW half of the CWA should stay dry through the morning and
most of the afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and a steady SW
wind. With decent heating, expect temps to rise into the low and mid
80s.

By Wednesday afternoon, another disturbance passes through the SW
flow and should be able to initiate scattered to numerous storms
across our NW. Actually more impressed with isolated severe chances
across southern IN tomorrow afternoon as atmposphere should be more
unstable than today. Flow will still be weak, although just marginal
enough for perhaps some organization. This wouldn't be a widespread
threat, but a few instances of gusty winds or hail seem possible.

Scattered showers and storms should hang around mainly across the
northern CWA through the Wednesday evening hours with lows in the
low and mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Wet. That's all you need to know about the extended forecast. OK, if
not wet, then at least the chance of wet...for every 12-hour period
through day 7. I will concede that for Thursday night the precip
chances will only be down in the southeast part of our area (near
Lake Cumberland), but otherwise, the forecast is a broken record.

On the plus side, despite the persistent chance for rain, the chance
for excessive rain, and severe weather, for that matter, do not look
impressive.  The overall upper air pattern through the period keeps
an elongated positively tilted trof to our west, but close enough
for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to receive showers or low-end
thunderstorms as short waves ride through to the north.  There are
hints by the second half of the weekend into early next week of a
trof digging down into the southern Mississippi Valley. This could
give the area the best chance for significant convection, but this
far out, it is only worthy of mention.

Despite the persistent rain chances, the overall rainfall totals
expected for the entire week are only on the order of 1.5 to 2.5
inches, so no widespread river or flooding issues are anticipated.
Of course, the usual caveat of any individual storm being capable of
producing isolated heavy rains still applies.  Probability-wise,
chances are only in the 30-50% range...not because it won't occur,
but because when it rains, coverage will be spotty.

As far as temperature go, highs will be in the 80s through Saturday,
then in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the remainder of the period.
Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 122 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Focus continues to be on thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon. Sct-Num coverage has developed in an unstable environment
ahead of an upper disturbance. Expect on and off rounds through the
afternoon. Ceilings will stay just above the VFR/MVFR threshold
(outside of any t-storms) with a strong south wind between 15 and 20
mph, gusting up around 30 mph.

Timing at SDF: Rounds of showers/T-storms between 2-7 PM. Brief MVFR
or IFR Vis. Another round of VCTS around midnight possible.

Timing at LEX: Rounds of showers/T-storms between 2-8 PM. Brief MVFR
or IFR vis. Another round of VCTS after midnight possible.

Timing at BWG: Rounds of showers/T-storms bewteen 2-5 PM EDT. Brief
MVFR or IFR vis.

Winds will subside toward sunset and models are suggesting that MVFR
ceilings will be possible. Depending on how showers/storms evolve
today, patchy fog could develop as well tonight if winds are calm.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Medium
Visibility: Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    Medium

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-272000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 /257 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AROUND AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...SOME HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL... AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. ANY
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/JBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INZ078-079-092-KYZ030-031-261905-
CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-JEFFERSON IN-OLDHAM KY-SCOTT IN-
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF PROSPECT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PROSPECT...
  SCOTTSBURG...
  JEFFERSONVILLE...
  NEW MARKET AND OTISCO...
  MARYSVILLE AND NABB...
  LEXINGTON...
  SWANVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
16 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
2 AND 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 8558 3827 8578 3834 8578 3836 8576
      3838 8579 3877 8583 3881 8580 3883 8573
      3882 8570 3883 8568 3882 8563 3886 8561
      3887 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 209DEG 34KT 3848 8566

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INZ079-092-KYZ031-032-261935-
CLARK IN-JEFFERSON IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BEDFORD...
  MADISON...
  MILTON AND MONITOR...
  BROOKSBURG AND RINGWALD...
  MANVILLE AND CHINA...
  CANAAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE
UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 8520 3871 8523 3874 8526 3873 8532
      3865 8525 3850 8529 3850 8531 3846 8535
      3844 8533 3842 8533 3842 8546 3892 8549
      3892 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 208DEG 35KT 3865 8536

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KYZ033-262000-
HENRY KY-
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW CASTLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NEW CASTLE...
  TURNERS STATION AND LACIE...
  PORT ROYAL...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
28 AND 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 8507 3858 8504 3857 8501 3856 8500
      3835 8520 3835 8527 3839 8531 3846 8534
      3850 8531 3849 8528 3859 8517 3860 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 208DEG 37KT 3851 8519

RAS

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