Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
531 PM EDT Mon May 11 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 530 PM EDT Mon May 11 2015

Mesoscale environment rather meager at this point with RAP
analysis showing roughly 500 J/kg of CAPE over the area. As the
main upper level shortwave trough pivots through, this is
providing decent effective shear, on the order of 40 to 50 kts.
This CAPE/shear imbalance combined with waning daytime heating is
limiting the overall severe threat for central KY and southern
IN. While an uptick in convection is possible, we're thinking that
the overall threat is diminished at this point, but we'll monitor
trends closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon May 11 2015

Main focus is near term severe potential across portions of
central/eastern Kentucky into southern Indiana.

Pre-frontal trough already east of I-65 as of 2 pm, which has been
the main show for convective initiation this afternoon. Environment
is characterized by mid 60s dewpoints with temperatures climbing
into the mid 80s. This combined with some weak mid-level height
falls has produced CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Shear isn't too
impressive at this point, the greatest effective shear lies to the
west. Nonetheless, there's enough directional shear to support
organized storms. Severe thunderstorm watch #165 is in effect until
10 PM EDT for portions of the area. Main threat is damaging winds
and large hail.

Hi-res models, NSSL and SPC WRF, capture current activity fairly
well bringing isolated to scattered convective line through the area
by late afternoon or early evening. This is largely due to the
pre-frontal trough. Along the true cold front, cloud debris, cooler
temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints is keeping the environment
in check. Couldn't rule out a few thunderstorms developing, feel the
greatest threat is across central/eastern KY through 6 pm or so.

Once the front passes later this evening, noticeably drier and
cooler conditions will push into the region. Skies will be mostly
clear overnight and plan on lows to fall into the mid 50s to low
60s.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a pleasant yet breezy day as high
pressure begins to push into the area. Winds will be gusty out of
the west, approaching 25 to 30 mph at times during the peak of the
day. Otherwise, plan on highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon May 11 2015

Strong surface high over the Great Lakes, along with weak ridging
aloft, will keep the middle of the week mild and dry, with temps
near or just below climo through Thursday.

Negatively tilted shortwave trof will start to ride up and over the
ridge later in the week to start a parade of disturbances. Gulf
opens up and our moisture will increase in response. Expect multiple
rounds of showers and storms beginning Thursday night and continuing
through the weekend as SW flow deepens. Have backed off of
likely/categorical POPs shown in some of the models, generally
capping chances at 50% due to uncertainties in exact timing. It will
rain this weekend, and it may even rain at some point in just about
every period, but there will be substantial breaks. No organized
severe weather is expected, but can't rule out isolated pulse storms
with gusty winds, or a few heavy rain producers.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon May 11 2015

In the near term, pre-frontal trough will have passed through
BWG/SDF by 18z and through LEX by 19z. Convective initiation along
this boundary is isolated and overall coverage of thunderstorms
looks to be low through this afternoon. Nonetheless, environment
supports thunderstorm development so will continue to mention VCTS
through early evening.

Gradient winds out ahead of the front will gust 25 to locally 30 kts
as we mix down fairly well. Plan on the wind shift to occur from
south to south/southwest then eventually southwest by 03z. Ceilings
likely to remain VFR outside of any t-storm.

Forecast Confidence 11/18Z TAF Issuance
====================================
Ceilings:   Moderate
Visibility: High
Winds:      High
T-storm:    Moderate
====================================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......ZT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
602 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

INZ091-092-112235-
CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-
602 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HALF INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 601 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF NEW ALBANY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NEW ALBANY...
  MEMPHIS AND PRATHER...
  CLARK SIDING AND CHARLESTOWN...
  NEW MARKET AND ROLLING HILLS...
  HIBERNIA AND VESTA...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
16 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
121 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 8549 3858 8543 3858 8542 3853 8542
      3851 8546 3847 8550 3845 8559 3842 8562
      3838 8564 3827 8584 3840 8598 3861 8568
      3861 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 232DEG 38KT 3840 8581

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE FRANKLIN           36.69N 86.53W
05/11/2015                   SIMPSON            KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 TREES DOWN IN THE COUNTY

&&

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
607 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW RUCKERVILLE        37.96N 84.14W
05/11/2015                   CLARK              KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 TREES DOWN IN THE COUNTY

&&

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
614 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

KYZ029>031-112245-
BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
614 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HALF INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 611 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIRDALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  SHIVELY...
  PROSPECT...
  PLEASURE RIDGE PARK...
  OKOLONA...
  LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...
  FISHERVILLE...
  PEWEE VALLEY AND ORCHARD GRASS HILLS...
  CENTERFIELD AND CRESTWOOD...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
121 AND 137.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
13 AND 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8532 3846 8535 3836 8528 3832 8531
      3830 8545 3828 8546 3826 8541 3822 8541
      3802 8576 3818 8590 3828 8577 3827 8574
      3830 8567 3837 8562 3839 8564 3845 8559
      3847 8550 3852 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 233DEG 51KT 3815 8573

RAS