River Flood Warning 78, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
842 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2015

Changed the area for thunderstorms to be more in the southeastern
CWA for this morning. Had some stronger ones go across the region,
at least based on reflectivity signatures. The winds remained above
an inversion though, so did not see any reports more than about 30
mph. Rain rates were impressive though, with the mesonet showing
some near 2 inch amounts under the heavier cores. Will have to watch
the area with the area under the current flood watch, as they could
get close to their flash flood guidance amounts, also near 2 inches.

Updated 640 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2015

Not many changes to the forecast this morning.  Showers and
scattered storms are overspreading the area as forecast.  We've had
a few stronger cells over south central KY that looked impressive,
but have not produced wind gusts of more than 20-30 mph. Feel
stronger winds associated with storms are largely elevated so
they're not reaching the ground.  However, a bowing segment was
riding a boundary across south central KY early this morning and
will need to be watched carefully as the boundary could help mix
down stronger winds aloft.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2015

...Wet Weather For Christmas Day and into the Weekend...

Showers and t-storms were blossoming over western TN early this
morning courtesy of a shortwave embedded in a broad upper level
trough riding along a sfc boundary over the TN Valley.  This
activity will continue to push NE up the sfc boundary into the Ohio
Valley overspreading most of central KY by sunrise.  Showers with
embedded t-storms will be likely this morning with perhaps the
heaviest rainfall setting up from Tompkinsville to Richmond, KY and
points SE of this line.  This area is already well saturated with 3
hr flash flood guidance ranging from 1.6-1.8 inches and 6 hr flash
flood guidance in the 1.8-2 inch range.  Over the next 24-30 hrs,
high-res models really peg this area to receive good bands of steady
moderate to at times heavy rainfall.  With these factors in mind and
in coordination with OHX/JKL, decided to issue a Flood Watch from
12Z today to 12Z Sat.  Minor areal flooding could create issues and
the embedded t-storms with higher rainfall rates could create a
flash flood threat.  This area could see 1-2.5 inches of rain
through Sat morning with locally higher amounts possible.

The rest of the area will certainly remain wet today through Sat
also as multiple waves ride up the boundary providing many rounds of
rain with embedded t-storms.  Rainfall amounts should total between
1-2 inches over the rest of central KY and south central IN through
Sat.

Although potential flooding will remain the primary through
Saturday, a secondary threat may be a few strong storms with gusty
winds both today and Sat.  The boundary nearby will provide
favorable winds profiles for rotating storms.  A few cells may get
organized and grow tall enough to produce isld instances of damaging
winds.

With the boundary lingering over south central KY close to the TN
border, most locations will be limited to the mid 50s to lower 60s
for high temps.  However locations over south central KY that stay
south of the boundary for a longer period have the potential to
reach the mid to upper 60s.  Tonight lows will range from the lower
50s to lower 60s and may break record warm lows for 12/26 in some
locations. Saturday the boundary will lift north and we'll enter a
warm sector which will cause temps to soar into the 66-75 degree
range for highs challenging record highs for 12/26.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2015

...Active Weather Into Next Week...

The sfc boundary mentioned in the short term discussion will lift
north as a warm front on Sat providing a relative lull in precip Sat
night for many locations over central KY.  Southern IN may stay
close enough to the front to remain in the rain shield Sat night.

By Sunday, the boundary will sink south into our area again as a
strong low pressure system over the southern U.S. strengthens.  That
low pressure system will become fairly strong as it moves northeast
through the Mississippi River Valley Monday and then to the southern
Great Lakes by Tues.  This weather system will be responsible for
continued rounds of moderate to at times heavy rain with embedded
storms Sun-early Tues. This additional rainfall will bring rainfall
totals from Sat through early Tues into the 4-6 inch range with
locally higher amounts possible.  This amount of rainfall could
certainly cause areal flooding, river flooding, and potentially
periods of flash flooding in any t-storms.  Thus, the Hydrologic
Outlook (ESF) detailing this potential flooding threat through early
next week will be re-issued.

With this strong low pressure system passing just to our WNW on
Monday, it may provide enough forcing for strong to potentially
severe storms late in the day Monday.  Stay tuned on that
possibility as timing and available instability as this low pressure
system evolves will determine our threat for severe weather. Outside
of storms, winds will become gusty on Monday as the sfc pressure
gradient tightens.

The steady rains should come to an end by Tues with only very light
chances for rain showers sprinkled through the rest of the week.
Relatively warm temps will remain in place through mid week although
not threatening records like weekend temps will.  Temps will return
closer to normal Thurs and beyond as an upper trough with colder air
slowly traverses the eastern U.S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Updated 255 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2015

Several rounds of rain through early next week are expected across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This additional rainfall, on
top of already wet ground, will bring further rises to many rivers
this weekend and early next week. Rainfall totals of 3 to locally 5
inches across southern Indiana and central Kentucky through Tuesday
may push some rivers above flood stage. This includes the
Muscatatuck River at Deputy and the Blue River at Fredericksburg in
southern Indiana. Across central Kentucky, the Rolling Fork River at
Boston is expected to remain above flood stage through at least
early next week. Plan on rises possibly into flood stage on the
Rough River at Dundee and several locations along the Green River.
The Kentucky River will see significant rises, but could remain just
below flood levels. Finally, the main stem of the Ohio River from
Markland Lock to Tell City will see significant rises but will
likely remain below flood stage at this time. Those with hydrologic
interests along these rivers are urged to stay tuned for the latest
updates and forecasts.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 612 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2015

Steady rain with embedded thunderstorms will track from BWG to south
of LEX this morning, associated with an initial shortwave coming out
of TN. The bulk of the rain will skirt BWG, maybe LEX, while SDF
largely lies on the fringe of the heavier precipitation, but should
still see light rain showers. Despite this though, deep saturation
will continue to lower ceilings at all sites this morning. BWG/LEX
will likely see prolonged periods of IFR ceilings, through the end
of the TAF period. SDF will lower below fuel-alternate levels by
12z, then approach IFR category by mid-morning. Once the stalled
front lifts back to the north tonight as a warm front, lower
ceilings and perhaps a shower or storm will develop. The greatest
chances for showers and/or a storm would be at SDF/LEX.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ056-057-066-067-075-
     077-078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Hydrology......ZT
Aviation.......ZT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>055-061>065-
070>074-076-260930-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-
METCALFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN...
MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH...
BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WILMORE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...EDMONTON
416 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 /316 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH RAINFALL RATES
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AT
TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY ACTIVE. 3 TO
LOCALLY 6 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...INCLUDING RIVERS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR STRONG WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.

KYZ056-057-066-067-075-077-078-081-082-260930-
GARRARD-MADISON-CASEY-LINCOLN-MONROE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-
CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...LIBERTY...
STANFORD...TOMPKINSVILLE...COLUMBIA...RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...
SALEM...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
416 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 /316 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH RAINFALL RATES
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AT
TIMES. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY ACTIVE. 3 TO
LOCALLY 6 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...INCLUDING RIVERS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR STRONG WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
931 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLOOD            DANVILLE                37.64N 84.77W
12/25/2015                   BOYLE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            CALL CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED
            IN COUNTY. REPORTS STOPPED COMING IN ABOUT
            30 MINUTES AGO...AS RAINS HAVE TAPERED OFF.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
944 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 AM     FLOOD            BRADFORDSVILLE          37.50N 85.15W
12/25/2015                   MARION             KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BRADFORDSVILLE MAYOR INDICATED SEVERAL ROADS
            WITH WATER OVER THEM.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     FLOOD            4 S SULPHUR WELL        37.78N 84.55W
12/25/2015                   JESSAMINE          KY   PUBLIC

            ROAD STARTING TO WASH OUT AT BRUMFIELD LANE
            AND LITTLE HICKMAN ROAD.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

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