River Flood Warning 50, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
722 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Convective complex is about to get out of the area and will try to
get rid of the rest of the thunderstorm watch shortly thereafter.
Will still be concerned about heavy rainfall across central KY where
some training of moderate to briefly heavy rain showers could occur.
After convection ceases later this evening, do expect a dry
overnight before another round of convection gets going later in the
morning.

Previous Update...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2015

A bowing segment across southern IN and and far north central KY has
developed a few meso-vortices along the leading edge where an
isolated tornado will be possible. Severe hail and and pockets of
damaging wind will be possible as this feature moves along the I-64
corridor east toward the Louisville Metro. Right now have the line
timed into Louisville sometime between 515 PM EDT and 545 PM EDT.
Will consider extending the Severe Thunderstorm Watch further to the
east if strong convection continues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2015

...Strong Storms, Including Heavy Rain and Frequent Lightning this
Evening...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #28 is in effect for the west central part
of the CWA until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT. A cluster of storms stretching
from the lower Wabash River Valley to the Mo Bootheel will slide
into our CWA over the next few hours and into the evening. Given,
1000 to 2500 J/KG of CAPE and marginal deep layer shear, some storm
organization is expected to be maintained into the area. Thermal
profiles would suggest that marginally severe hail and isolated
instances of damaging winds will be possible as DCAPE values are
approaching 1000 J/KG.

Perhaps the bigger concern will be for storms moving over where
heavy rain fell earlier today and the potential for Flash Flooding.
PWATs will approach 2 standard deviations above normal this evening.
This combined with steady moisture transport from the SW could yield
some locally intense rainfall.

Things should quiet down fairly quickly this evening with storms
waning as we lose of diurnal heating. Expect a relative lull,
through the overnight where min Ts will fall into the low and mid
60s.

Another round or two  of convection is expected again on Wednesday
and Wednesday night as we stay on the unstable side of a frontal
boundary and moisture transport continues into the region.
Instability and shear profiles would suggest that strong storms are
possible, however the lack of a focused trigger may limit the severe
threat somewhat. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper
70s and low 80s.  Lows Wednesday night will again be in th low and
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Main long-term challenge remains T-storm chances, timing, and
impacts Thursday into Friday. Expect deep SW flow on Thursday as a
sharp upper shortwave trof kicks a surface low from the central
Plains into the Great Lakes. Subtle differences in timing
notwithstanding, there is still a decent consensus that the cold
front will push through the Ohio Valley after midnight Thursday
night, exiting the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas Friday
morning.

Thursday will feature high-end chance or low-end likely POPs in a
juicy warm advection regime. Better chances and stronger storms will
accompany the front as it moves through Thursday night. While the
main severe threat still appears to be to our north and west, we
could have decaying strong storms in the evening, with a wind threat
mainly west of Interstate 65. Heavy rain threat will be limited due
to this being a somewhat progressive system, but with over an inch
of QPF in many of the same areas that have seen the heaviest rains,
it won't take much to generate at least nuisance flooding.

Transition day on Friday as the front pushes through. POPs will drop
off dramatically from west to east, with most of the area going dry
by mid-afternoon. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected Friday
night through Sunday as high pressure ridges in from the north.

Moisture ramps up again late Sunday into early next week ahead of
yet another southern stream system. Think that at least a period or
two around Monday may be worthy of low-end likely POPs, but that
will be better refined with later model runs. Temps continue on the
high end of normal, especially by night.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 713 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2015

The convective complex is pushing through the LEX site now and will
continue quickly east. Meanwhile, BWG is only expected to see
scattered rain showers in the vicinity. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions with surface winds slowly returning to a SSW direction
around 10 mph. Once convection clears this evening, do expect a dry
overnight. Another convective complex then looks to get organized
over the TAF sites around late morning through mid afternoon. Will
mention VCTS for now with best anticipated timing.

One other note. If we are able to clear out tonight and winds are
too strong to keep things mixed. Some fog will be possible where
heavy rain fell today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PALMYRA                 38.41N 86.11W
04/07/2015                   HARRISON           IN   PUBLIC

            ROADS FLOODED. STREAM OUT OF BANKS.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
555 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SELLERSBURG             38.39N 85.76W
04/07/2015                   CLARK              IN   PUBLIC

            WATER A FOOT DEEP ON SHIRLEY AVE.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
616 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             BRYANTSVILLE            37.72N 84.65W
04/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       GARRARD            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             1 NNW BUCKEYE           37.73N 84.51W
04/07/2015  E2.75 INCH       GARRARD            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             2 S CAMP NELSON         37.74N 84.62W
04/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       GARRARD            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TT

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