River Flood Warning 32, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1102 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2015

We plan on letting the Flood Watch go in the next few minutes.
Although another period of light rain is expected to settle across
the central and southern portions of Kentucky this afternoon ahead
of a cool front, the area has had a break from rain this morning.
This afternoon's rain is expected to be light and don't anticipate
any problems. Will continue to handle southern Indiana hydro
problems with ongoing Advisories and Warnings.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2015

...Unsettled Period Coming To An End Later Today...

Anomalous moist southerly flow across the Gulf Coast through the
lower Ohio Valley combined with a slow moving upper level shortwave
trough brought steady, deformation band rain to central Kentucky and
southern Indiana through the night. The most steady rainfall has
laid up across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky where in
the past 24 hours or so, total rainfall amounts between 2 and 3
inches have been reported.

For today, hi-res models and 14.00z guidance in reasonable agreement
showing that the aforementioned shortwave trough becomes sheared out
and gradually weakens/diminishes. The 850mb moisture transport axis
will shift toward northeastern Kentucky, West Virginia and the
mid-Atlantic this morning. Look for a steady decrease in
precipitation coverage and intensity throughout the day, clearing
out northwest to southeast late this morning and through this
afternoon as a push of drier northwest air finally arrives. PWATs,
which early this morning are running 2 to 3 SD above normal, will
fall below 1 inch by early afternoon, then finally drop below 0.5
inch late afternoon or evening.

Plan on highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s with a mostly
cloudy to overcast day. By mid to late afternoon, some breaks in the
clouds are possible, especially across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky. North winds will top out between 10 and 15 mph by mid
afternoon.

Surface high pressure builds into the region from the northwest late
tonight and with the lighter winds, mostly clear skies and residual
moisture in place across the area, patchy fog could develop by early
Sunday morning. Surface winds are expected to be 5 kts or less,
though the depth of this light wind layer isn't all too impressive.
SREF probabilities for patchy fog are running 20-40 percent, so
something to consider for the forecast tonight.

Sunday is shaping up to be a pleasant, seasonably warm day with
plenty of sunshine as high pressure rules across the Ohio Valley.
Look for highs to top out in the lower to middle 60s and plan on
light northwest winds. A much needed day to dry out from the recent
rainy and unsettled period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2015

The long term will begin with high pressure overhead, ridging from
the eastern Great Lakes to Texas.  This ridge will slide slowly
southward into the Gulf States on Monday.

Behind the high a cold front will slip in from the north and cross
southern Indiana and central Kentucky Monday night.  With the high
to our south blocking the Gulf, the front should come through dry.
There will be an increase in clouds, though, from late Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

The front will be followed by a dome of high pressure advancing from
the Prairie Provinces Monday to the Ohio Valley Wednesday, and then
on to the Carolina coast Thursday, resulting in a continuation of
dry weather for us mid-week.

Thursday/Friday the forecast gets murkier, but in general it appears
that an upper trof will enter the region from the northwest and will
slightly increase our rain chances to end the work week.  Low levels
remain quite dry Thursday before moistening significantly on
Friday.  Will keep PoPs low at this time.

Ahead of the front, Monday afternoon will likely see temperatures in
the lower 70s, with lows that night in the mid 40s.  Behind the
front on Tuesday highs will only be in the 50s, with lows Tuesday
night around the freezing mark. Wednesday through Friday we'll have
50s each afternoon and 30s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2015

Plan on rain to become more spotty and showery through the morning
hours before ending mid afternoon at the TAF sites. IFR to MVFR
conditions this morning will gradually improve north to south across
the region as drier air arrives from the northwest. Ceilings will
lift during the afternoon, likely reaching VFR 21-00z before
scattering out late this evening or tonight. Westerly winds will
become more northwesterly late this morning and especially this
afternoon, reaching 10 to 12 kts. There are some suggestions in the
model guidance for light fog to develop at the terminals, but
confidence isn't too high to include at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057.

IN...FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1128 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-151530-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1128 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 /1028 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/13