Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Louisville, KY

079 
WGUS73 KLMK 141420
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
920 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYC001-053-087-207-217-141430-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-150714T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUSSELL KY-TAYLOR KY-ADAIR KY-GREEN KY-CLINTON KY-
920 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 930 AM CDT/1030 AM EDT/ FOR
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...GREEN...CENTRAL ADAIR...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR
AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

LAT...LON 3679 8512 3735 8569 3738 8567 3746 8554
      3746 8552 3692 8495 3686 8506 3683 8506
      3680 8501 3677 8501

$$

EER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
...Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential continue...

Svr Watch #420 was issued to extend the Svr threat through 12Z over
much of southern IN and central KY, and also to re-orient the watch
placement to NW to SE vs the old N to S.  This orientation better
matches convection trends and thoughts on how convection will evolve
through the pre-dawn hours.

As of 330am edt, a complex of storms over the Bluegrass region and
into central KY contained strong winds and torrential rainfall.
This complex of storms continues to dive SSE leaving multiple
outflow boundaries to the west where renewed convection is
occurring.  Further downstream, another complex of storms was
dropping SSE out of central IL/IN and is progged to move through
southern IN/central KY during the pre-dawn hrs.  Although we are
capped at the sfc, plenty of elevated CAPE still exists.  Think that
particular strong storms or storms with boundary interactions will
be able to break that cap and still produce some instances of
damaging winds.  Also, we have seen some boundaries create low level
rotation in some storms that have prompted a few tornado warning
which may continue to be the case through the pre-dawn hours. Since
we have multiple rounds of convection yet to go with the above
mentioned environmental factors, Svr Watch #420 goes through 12Z.

This round of convection should exit the area by around sunrise or
shortly after with a break expected from mid to late morning through
mid afternoon.  Another potent shortwave trough and cold front is
progged to bring another round of strong to severe storms to
southern IN and central KY late this afternoon/evening.  The
atmosphere is expected to destabilize (strongly) in the wake of the
morning MCS.  Also, steep mid to upper level lapse rates will make
large hail a bigger threat with the convection later in the day.
Although damaging winds and isld tornadoes will remain on the table
as well.  Think the best area for severe storms will be along and
west of I-65 closer to better forcing.

Additional storms on already saturated grounds will continue to
cause flash flooding problems, thus, will continue the flash flood
watch.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2015

The overall synoptic pattern during the extended does not change all
that much as mean mid-level troughing persists over the East and
West Coasts, with a dominant ridge over the southern and central
Plains. West to northwest flow will continue over the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, but subtle changes should be a less active, but not
necessarily inactive pattern across central KY and south-central IN.

The general idea through the period should be for more weak
shortwaves riding eastward around the periphery of the ridge across
the southern Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley. However, with
more of a westerly flow forecast to develop aloft late this week
into early next week, and the ridge expanding slightly northward, it
appears that the preferred track for convection may stay primarily
north of our area during that period. Nevertheless, there still
could be isolated to scattered diurnal convection this weekend.
Also, cannot totally discount that more MCS activity could form in
west to northwest flow and affect us as models would have a very
difficult time forecasting such an event several days in advance.
However, based on the progged pattern, any such activity would be
more likely to track mainly north of us.

In the meantime, it will be dry Wednesday night into Friday with
less humid conditions and seasonal afternoon high temperatures
Thursday. However, heat may arrive with a vengeance over the weekend
on the northeast extension of the upper ridge. Highs Saturday and
Sunday could end up in the mid 90s (with lower 90s over east central
KY) with surface dewpoints rising back up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. This could create afternoon heat indices from 100 to 105
over the west half of central KY and southern IN.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2015

Overnight convection has exited SDF and will likely be out of LEX by
the valid time of these TAFs. Expect VFR conditions with debris
clouds there, and light/variable or SE winds with the wake low
behind the MCS. May need to initialize LEX with VCSH but SDF will be
dry. BWG will also be dry, but with a bit stronger SW wind.

WSW winds will pick up later this morning as the synoptic pattern
around a Great Lakes low takes control. Main challenge will be
T-storm potential this afternoon as another disturbance interacts
with our highly unstable air mass. Not confident enough in a direct
impact to include any restrictions, but will at least carry VCTS/CB
for a few hrs late this afternoon into early evening. BWG is south
of most of the forcing, so confidence is even lower there.

Drier NW low-level flow spills in late this evening. Will include
MVFR visibilities for LEX given the ridiculous amount of rain in the
area recently, and for BWG as it's closer to the boundary and more
fog-prone anyway.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-
063>067-077-078-150845-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 /333 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN ALREADY WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH EACH ROUND OF
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...AND FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ026-061-062-070>076-081-082-150845-
OHIO KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
333 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN ALREADY WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH EACH ROUND OF
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100 TO 105 POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...AND FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

AMS/TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BEDFORD            38.58N 85.33W
07/14/2015                   TRIMBLE            KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 754 WEST OF BEDFORD.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 38.76N 85.38W
07/14/2015                   JEFFERSON          IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE COUNTY.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW BEREA             37.55N 84.31W
07/14/2015                   MADISON            KY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN AT SLATE LICK ROAD AND MT. VERNON
            ROAD.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N HENRYVILLE          38.56N 85.76W
07/14/2015                   CLARK              IN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS FLOODING AT BROWNSTOWN ROAD
            AND HEBRON ROAD.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LOUISVILLE              38.22N 85.74W
07/14/2015                   JEFFERSON          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            FIVE WATER RESCUES FROM PEOPLE STRANDED IN
            VEHICLES ACROSS THE LOUISVILLE METRO.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W JEFFERSONTOWN       38.20N 85.59W
07/14/2015                   JEFFERSON          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE EASTERN PART OF
            JEFFERSON COUNTY INCLUDING ON STONY BROOK
            DRIVE AND HURSTBOURNE.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM