Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
730 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROAM
PORTIONS OF NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR AUGUST.

&&

.UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX NEAR SALT LAKE CITY THIS MORNING,
WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS
NE ELKO COUNTY. UPDATED ALL GRIDS THROUGH 11 AM TO MATCH RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS NE ELKO COUNTY THROUGH
11 AM. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AN AUSTIN-
EUREKA-CHERRY CREEK LINE AFTER 11 AM, AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND A
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ON THE MORNING ELKO SOUNDING, HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO
DRIBBLE INTO SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS EVENING. TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 241 AM /

SYNOPSIS...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES
RIDGING FROM TEXAS TO WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A FETCH OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. ITS A PRETTY GRIMY
PATTERN....AND THE PAST 48 HRS...THE MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT DONE
WELL FOR THE LKN CWA. THERE IS A VORTEX THAT HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO
THE STEERING FLOW...WHICH ADDS TO THE OVERALL DYNAMICS...LENDING
ITSELF TOWARDS CONVECTION POTENTIAL. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE FOR
ELKO AT 00Z IS 90F...WITH PWS RANGING FROM .75 OF AN INCH TO JUST
OVER ONE INCH. AT 500 MB THE DISTURBANCE IS EAST OF THE LKN CWA BY
18Z ON THE ECMWF AND 12Z ON THE GFS...WITH BOTH MODELS HOLDING ONTO
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE LKN CWA. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ON TUESDAY WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE. FOR THE POPS THIS PACKAGE ...HEDGED WITH THE
ALL BLEND WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIFFERENCES IN
THE BEGINNING MAKE BEING PRECISE DIFFICULT. THE DIFFERENCES EXPAND
TOWARD THE END...SO WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE CURRENT BROAD BRUSH
PICTURE IN PLACE THEN.

OVERALL IDEA IS FOR THE CURRENT RIDGE TO CONTINUE BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC MOVING TOWARD
THE SHORE...THROWING SHORT WAVES TOWARD THE INTERIOR CENTRAL WEST.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ENABLE SOME STORMS
TO FORM OVER NORTHERN NEVADA LATE TUESDAY BUT THE SEMI-PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE WAVES WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM LATE TUESDAY COULD
HAVE HIGHER RAIN FALL RATES BRIEFLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECTING PRETTY DRY AIR IN THE REGION, AND
TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST TEMPS. THEN ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION FRIDAY BRINGING STORMS TO MANY PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA. TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFS ARE CREEPING IN GOOD BY
NOW...SO NO MORE SPECIFICS ARE JUSTIFIED. ANOTHER DRY SPELL NEXT
WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WHICH ARE NOTHING TO
WRITE HOME ABOUT FOR THIS AREA LATELY. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP
THINGS A BIT UNSETTLED AT KWMC...KEKO...KTPH...AND KELY THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MONDAY EVENING. STILL VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. VIRGA IS ALSO LIKELY WHICH WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF BUILD UPS. STORMS AND BUILD UPS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...A CANOPY OF CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS SHUNTED THE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NV YESTERDAY...AND NOW THAT DECK IS
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...THE PRECIP THAT DID
OCCUR...WAS NOT NEAR THE WETTING RAIN THRESHOLD...AND THE LALS DID
NOT MATERIALIZE EITHER. THE VORTEX THAT IS EMBEDDED WITH THE MONSOON
SURGE...HAS ALMOST HAD A DEFORMATION ZONE LOOK TO IT...WHICH IS A
BIT PECULIAR. AGAIN...GIVEN THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS...BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1246 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

NVZ035-032030-
WHITE PINE COUNTY NV-
1246 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM PDT...

AT 1244 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES EAST OF MCGILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 93 JUST NORTH OF MCGILL
AND STATE ROUTE 93 NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50/6.

LAT...LON 3926 11462 3954 11486 3992 11422 3972 11404
      3944 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 237DEG 39KT 3942 11449

RLC