Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA ON
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC WILL INCREASE RAIN ACROSS NEVADA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

VIGOROUS TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS JUST CLIPPING NE NEVADA WITH A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. INTENSE SUPERCELL NORTH OF MONTELLO SHOWED
ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL ON RADAR FOR A TIME, WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY WANES
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH ANY SHOWERS AND CUMULUS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.

TUESDAY...TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE PAC NW, WITH WARM DRY SW FLOW
OVER NEVADA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TOMORROW, WITH NAM
FORECASTING POSITIVE LIFTED INDICES. LEFT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA TO MATCH THE
NEIGHBORING WFOS, BUT THERE CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE MUCH. SW BREEZES
RAMP UP SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH, WITH THE WARM DRY SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW, WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THIS TROUGH ENTERING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
TROUGH AXIS WILL ARRIVE IN NE NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING HOURS, IGNITING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. INCREASED POPS, SPECIFICALLY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY, WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
FAVORED. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AGAIN VERY NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMALS. TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS COMING
INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE REGION
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO KEEP THINGS ON WET SIDE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ...BUT THE MAIN SOURCE OF RH FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THE
TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE COAST AND CLOSES DRAMATICALLY. IT DOES NOT
DEEPEN APPRECIABLY...STAYING BETWEEN 565 AND 570 DM AT 500 MB...BUT
A DECENT RIDGE FORMS TO THE NORTHWEST....CREATING A QUASI-REX BLOCK
OVER THE WEST. THIS KEEPS THE LOW IN PLAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HENCE...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE REAL THING TO TALK ABOUT IS HURRICANES ANDRES AND BLANCA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE DIMINISH OVER TIME...BUT THEIR TROPICAL
MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE COASTAL LOW AND BROUGHT INTO
NEVADA. THE MAIN TRAJECTORY LOOKS AT THIS WRITING TO BE INTO WHITE
PINE COUNTY...BUT IT'S NOT DUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY...SO AM KEEPING AN
OPEN MIND. KEPT POPS IN ALL WEEK...ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT KEEPS A
MENTION OF PRECIP/STORMS.

TEMPS COOL OFF UNDER THE TROUGH FOR A NICE LATE SPRING WEEK. BB

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING SOME VCSH/VCTS AT KEKO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL CIGS AT KELY. KWMC AND KTPH ARE
MAINLY IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE MID
20 KNOT RANGE AT ALL FIELDS...WITH HIGHER VARIABLE GUSTS NEAR THE
STORMS AROUND KEKO. THIS ALL TAPERS OFF AFTER SUNSET. VFR AT ALL
SITES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW BUILDUPS MIGHT OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND KEKO AND KWMC. BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/98/98

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1236 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

NVZ031-012015-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
1236 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM PDT...

AT 1235 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY...FROM NEAR JACKPOT
TO NEAR CONTACT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONTACT AND JACKPOT.
U.S. HIGHWAY 93 FROM NEAR CONTACT TO NEAR JACKPOT.

LAT...LON 4188 11404 4187 11406 4155 11478 4194 11516
      4200 11504 4200 11495 4199 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 228DEG 52KT 4186 11478

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
133 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

NVZ031-012115-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
133 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM PDT...

AT 131 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19
MILES NORTH OF MONTELLO...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN ELKO
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4137 11430 4181 11439 4182 11404 4138 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 176DEG 45KT 4154 11419

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

NVZ034-038-039-012200-
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-
211 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
PDT...

AT 209 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUBY VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED ON THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH 3 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE CENTRAL RUBY MOUNTAINS.
CLOVER VALLEY...RUBY VALLEY AND SECRET PASS.

LAT...LON 4063 11532 4075 11546 4099 11515 4083 11491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 230DEG 48KT 4073 11531

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
252 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

NVZ031-033-012230-
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY NV-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
252 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
PDT...

AT 251 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MONTELLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTELLO.
STATE HIGHWAY 233 NEAR MONTELLO.

LAT...LON 4107 11428 4123 11441 4161 11406 4159 11404
      4119 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 234DEG 49KT 4120 11426

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
305 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

NVZ034-038-039-012230-
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-
305 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
PDT...

AT 304 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTH OF DEETH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STAR VALLEY AND ANGEL LAKE.
INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN DEETH AND WELLS.

THIS INCLUDES MILE MARKER 344 SR 230 AND MILE MARKER 348 BEVERLY
HILLS.

LAT...LON 4090 11514 4099 11529 4114 11522 4112 11498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 221DEG 51KT 4102 11520

TURNER

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