Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH NEVADA THIS WEEK, PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...
AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA.
EXPECT PULSE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TO DISSIPATE
PROMPTLY AT SUNSET, WHILE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50, MAINLY NYE COUNTY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SW ZONES AS GFS SUGGESTS.

CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. NONETHELESS, SOME
DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED ALOFT, AND INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. NAM FORECASTS CAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG, WITH
LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4, AND ALONG WITH THE ECMWF'S GENEROUS QPF
DEPICTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CONFIDENT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL RESULT, AND INCREASED POP GRIDS SOME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM NEAR 80 AT ELY TO NEAR 90 AT WINNEMUCCA. WINDS LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH LINGERING NOCTURAL SHOWERS LIKELY. ALL MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. 12Z GFS IS VERY WET
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, AND IS LIKELY OVERDONE, BUT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER, WITH HIGHER QPF,
SHOULD IT COME TO FRUITION. CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM 12Z NAM ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...CLOSED PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST, ARRIVING ON THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY 5 PM. DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL ONLY INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA AS THE LOW APPROACHES, AND
INTERACT WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY, WITH LIFTED INDEX DOWN TO -7 AND CAPE
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...AND ASSUMING...WE CAN GET SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
THROUGH THE CLOUDS, A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED, AND INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS QUITE A BIT. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT WITH
SUNSHINE AVAILABILITY IN QUESTION, LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY
NORMALS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR ELY TO UPPER 80S NEAR
BATTLE MOUNTAIN.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OPENING INTO A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
TROUGH OVER NEVADA.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO OPEN AND LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
MOST LINGERING CONVECTION CENTERED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...DRIER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGHER PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY JUST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES SATURDAY...WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY SUNDAY WITH
RESPECT TO POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. MOST STORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE NORTH OF KWMC AND LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF
KEKO. STORMS ARE MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AND MAY IMPACT KTPH
AND KELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ON
TUESDAY AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY,
PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LAL OF 4 IS EXPECTED FOR MOST FWZ DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS WEEK. PW WILL AVERAGE NEAR 0.75 INCH FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK, SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST STORMS WET. SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR, WITH PW DOWN TO 0.50 INCH, WILL INVADE THE SE FWZ BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY FOR SOME INCREASING DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD (SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) THIS
WEEK.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/96/96/99

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