Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-010430-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD 3
TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

OVERALL THE AREA DRAINED FAIRLY WELL AFTER THE SYSTEM LAST
WEEKEND...BUT MANY RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES ALONG WITH TIDES ARE
STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO MANY LOW LYING AREAS
RESPONDING QUICKLY TO THE RAINFALL RUNOFF...LEADING TO SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
WEAK...BUT QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK WILL GREATLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

RIVERS LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOST WILL STOP FALLING AND MANY COULD REVERSE
AND POSSIBLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE AGAIN. THE GREATEST CONCERN
WOULD BE THE AMITE...COMITE...TICKFAW...TANGIPAHOA...BOGUE
CHITTO...AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DRAINAGE CHANNELS.

ONE LAST CONCERN WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. TIDES CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE AS MUCH AS 1.5 TO
JUST UNDER 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SECOND PERIOD OF RAINFALL OCCURS OVER
THE AREA THAT SEES THE GREATEST VALUES ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE AROUND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE AS MUCH AS 1.5 TO JUST UNDER 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY.

CAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LAZ049-056-057-311800-
ASSUMPTION LA-ASCENSION LA-ST. JAMES LA-
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1212 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BELLE ROSE...OR OVER DONALDSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. WEAK
ROTATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM
CLOSELY TO SEE IF INTENSIFIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...SORRENTO...BELLE ROSE AND GEISMER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3006 9111 3009 9111 3034 9093 3017 9071
      2999 9103 3006 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 220DEG 33KT 3008 9104

CAB