Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SOUTHWARD. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12 CORRIDOR...
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SHOULD SEE LOWER
RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT AND ITS WESTERN RIDGE
COUNTERPART WILL DIMINISH IN AMPLITUDE SOMEWHAT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STILL BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE REGION THEREAFTER SERVES TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. 11

&&

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40KT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER LONGER INTO EVENING THAN NORMAL AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS. HAVE CONTINUED PROB30
CONVECTION THRU 06Z. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS. FR

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS OVER
WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE ON MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LOWER INTO
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EASE SOMEWHAT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LOWER INTO THE 1 TO 2 FEET RANGE
DURING THE WORKWEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...AFTERNOON CONVECTION. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  87  69  88 /  60  30  10  40
BTR  73  88  72  89 /  60  40  30  40
ASD  74  87  73  88 /  60  50  40  40
MSY  76  87  76  89 /  50  60  40  50
GPT  76  87  75  88 /  50  60  40  40
PQL  73  87  73  88 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
506 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-281015-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
506 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF WINDS GET A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH
MUCH LOWER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.