Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT...MOST CONVECTION WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THEN SPREADING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AM CARRYING GENERALLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
EACH DAY.

CONCERNING THE HEAT TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO TODAY COULD SEE A FEW
SITES RISE UP INTO THE 105 TO 100 HEAT INDEX RANGE FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE ONSET OF CONVECTION. AS EXPECTED AS SOON AS TSTORMS
BEGAN DEVELOPING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STARTED MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...HEAT INDEX VALUES DROPPED IN THE HOTTEST PLACES. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW...SO DON/T FEEL AS THOUGH A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. ADMIT THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BORDERLINE DAY HOWEVER...AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A DIFFERENT
OPINION.

PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING DIGS INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOULD EVEN SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY...AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT STALLS OR CLEARS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/D SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...POSSIBLY MOVING
NORTHWARD AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  95  74  91 /  20  40  30  40
BTR  76  95  76  92 /  20  40  30  40
ASD  78  95  77  91 /  20  50  20  40
MSY  79  94  78  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  79  94  79  91 /  20  40  30  40
PQL  78  94  77  91 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

MARINE...13/MH
AVIATION...MEFFER
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-232315-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 106 RANGE.
BE CAREFUL WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND STAY HYDRATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES. HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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