Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1135 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

.UPDATE...

PACKAGES HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 UNTIL 6 PM FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ABOUT TO LAUNCH AN 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED SINCE 6 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPINGING ON MOST TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT BAND OF
CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL 40+ KNOT GUSTS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEYOND FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME AS ALL SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK. WE WILL BE LAUNCHING A SPECIAL 18Z /NOON CST/ BALLOON TO
ASSESS ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS WERE ERUPTING STEADILY AS UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WARMS. THERE IS SOME VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOWER 1500
FT OR SO BEFORE BECOMING DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW AT 40 KTS ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER DECK.

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A MOIST SOUNDING BELOW 750 MB BUT
QUITE DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS LOWERED TO 1.35 INCHES
DUE IN LARGE PART TO PASSAGE OF A LINEAR DISTURBANCE ALFOT OVERNIGHT. WIND
PROFILE SHOWED SHALLOW ESE WINDS 5-10 KTS NEAR THE SURFACE BUT BECOMES
S-SW 30 KNOTS OR GREATER ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FT. 50 KT WINDS ARE NOTED AT 15KFT.
PEAK WIND 244/99KT AT TROPOPAUSE NEAR 45KFT.

RAN CHAP ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPERATURE AROUND 80F ON 12Z KLIX SOUNDING
WHICH YIELDED SUB-SEVERE OUTPUT. A LIFT OF 343K FROM LCL OF 911 MB HAS
A RICKS INDEX OF 75. GUST POTENTIAL 21 KT...PEA HAIL WITH A VIL VALUE
AROUND 82...NIL TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
LOWER PROFILE WOULD ALTER THE RISK. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEEP LAYERED
STRONG SW FLOW ABOVE MARINE LAYER COULD EFFICIENTLY TRANSPORT TO SURFACE
IN CELLULAR STORM DOWNBURSTS...EASILY 40 KTS GIVEN CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE RE-ASSESSED WITH 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON
RELEASE.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE NOT QUITE SCA LEVELS BUT ONSHORE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING
TO TIGHTEN AND DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW WILL WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE SHORTLY. SUSTAINTED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED REST OF
THE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             TORNADO WATCH 1 UNTIL 00Z

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  49  60  31 /  90  80  10  10
BTR  76  50  61  33 / 100  80  10  10
ASD  76  56  64  34 /  80  80  20  10
MSY  77  57  64  40 /  80  80  20  10
GPT  72  58  63  36 /  80  80  30  10
PQL  75  60  63  35 /  80  80  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-040515-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM CST FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN COULD PRODUCE RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND TEMPORARY PONDING OF
WATER IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WAVE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE RELAY ANY
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ040-MSZ077-080-081-031830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING PEARL RIVER
COUNTY...HANCOCK COUNTY...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 1121 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF WAVELAND...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PEARLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...STENNIS
SPACE CENTER...KILN AND DIAMONDHEAD

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3065 8933 3065 8925 3067 8924 3068 8923
      3068 8911 3018 8952 3017 8953 3027 8970
      3082 8935 3081 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 212DEG 35KT 3030 8955

LAZ037-071-MSZ069-070-031915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1222 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING AMITE COUNTY...ST.
HELENA PARISH...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...PIKE COUNTY...

AT 1219 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENSBURG...OR ABOUT 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTPELIER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
GREENSBURG...EASLEYVILLE...TANGIPAHOA...KENTWOOD...GILLSBERG...
OSYKA...MAGNOLIA AND MCCOMB AIRPORT

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3110 9026 3065 9065 3073 9084 3074 9085
      3127 9050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 213DEG 39KT 3075 9071