Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH 250 MB JET IS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PART OF STATE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF WARM UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE STATE ON SATURDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER...DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL...A STRATOCU FIELD WILL RUN
AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET THROUGH 03Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
IMPACT KBTR BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z BRINGING SOME IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE TERMINAL.  IF THIS STORM HOLD TOGETHER IT COULD
IMPACT KMSY AND KNEW AFTER 02Z.  HOWEVER...HAVE NOT MENTIONED TS IN
THE KMSY AND KNEW TAF DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
AFTER 03Z...A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN AS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS BUILD DOWN
TO OCCUR...AND EXPECT TO SEE A PREVAILING IFR CEILING FORM BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL FURTHER
FALL...AND SHOULD BE IN LIFR RANGE FROM 06Z THROUGH AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...A SECOND SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCLUDED
PREVAILING SHOWERS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET TO REFLECT THE EXPECTED OVERALL CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING. OF COURSE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. 32

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  84  67  89 /  50  50  10  10
BTR  73  85  69  90 /  50  50  10  10
ASD  73  83  70  86 /  40  50  10  20
MSY  74  84  72  86 /  40  50  10  20
GPT  74  81  72  85 /  40  50  20  20
PQL  72  83  70  86 /  40  50  20  20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
146 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-250700-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
146 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FROM NEW ORLEANS AND HOUMA WESTWARD. EAST
OF NEW ORLEANS AND HOUMA...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING AND COULD
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE RISK OF SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...AND MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LAZ060>064-242345-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-UPPER
JEFFERSON-
509 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST.
CHARLES... NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD...NORTHERN
LAFOURCHE...NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND ORLEANS PARISHES...

AT 507 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER CONVENT...OR
12 MILES EAST OF NAPOLEONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL OR LARGER SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KILLONA AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  TAFT AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  HAHNVILLE AND DES ALLEMANDS AROUND 545 PM CDT.
  BOUTTE...BAYOU GAUCHE...PARADIS...LULING...DESTREHAN AND NEW SARPY
  AROUND 550 PM CDT.  ST. ROSE AROUND 555 PM CDT. AMA AND WAGGAMAN
  AROUND 600 PM CDT.  RIVER RIDGE AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  AVONDALE AND BRIDGE CITY AROUND 610 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG
AIRPORT AND LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2969 9020 2969 9035 2976 9037 2979 9045
      2981 9048 2986 9049 2987 9052 2989 9054
      2998 9054 3006 9042 3002 9013 3005 8999
      3015 8987 3011 8985 3010 8982 3004 8982
      3000 8986 2995 8984 2993 8982 2965 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 284DEG 32KT 2999 9082

24/RR

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