Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...EXCESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS
LITTLE...IF ANY...MODERATING INFLUENCES FROM THE GULF. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AND
ARE TRACKING TO AFFECT HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN
MISSISSIPPI IN A FEW HOURS IF THEY DO NOT DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES
AT MID AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THIS IS
PRODUCING HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 115 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN
ONLY SLIPS SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND 925 MB SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY 2-3 DEGREES HOTTER THAN TODAY. CONSIDERING CURRENT HEAT
INDEX VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 2
DAYS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS MAY COME UP SHORT OF
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO CALL. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT IS FOR A LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THE NEXT TWO DAYS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER STRONG. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD...THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THERE. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RELOCATE TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DURING MID-WEEK...THE EASTERN UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN...AND ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE
CARRYING CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DRIFT A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
AFTER ABOUT 22Z. ALREADY HAVE A VCTS IN FOR KGPT...AND THIS MAY HOLD
TRUE UNLESS COVERAGE INCREASES NEAR THE WESTERNMOST RADAR RETURNS.
THERE REMAINS AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FOR THE
AIRPORTS AS FAR WEST AS KASD TO KMCB...SO WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION IN THOSE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
AND STIFLING HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS. HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
UTILIZED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT WINDS UP AROUND
15 KNOTS AT TIMES...HOWEVER AM ANTICIPATING STAYING BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
2 TO 3 FEET RANGE. WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CYCLE UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW
15 KNOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TO MOVE EITHER NEAR THE GULF
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THAT IS
LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ALL LAND AREAS THROUGH 7 PM
             MONDAY.
             RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER
             LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  79 101  79 101 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  79  98  78  97 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  80  98  80  97 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  95  79  94 /  20  10  10  20
PQL  78  94  77  94 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

MSZ081-082-082300-
JACKSON-HARRISON-
457 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARRISON AND
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 455 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 11 MILES WEST
OF LUCEDALE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL ENTER
JACKSON COUNTY AROUND 515 PM.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GULFPORT...BILOXI...WADE...VANCLEAVE AND LATIMER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3056 8851 3044 8908 3068 8907 3068 8889
      3074 8888 3073 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 343DEG 16KT 3087 8878