Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  70  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  60  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  70  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-052100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MSZ082-051745-
JACKSON MS-
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1154 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER HELENA...OR NEAR MOSS POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...ST. MARTIN...ESCATAWPA...GAUTIER...GULF
HILLS...LATIMER...GULF PARK ESTATES...VANCLEAVE...HICKORY HILLS...
HELENA AND BIG POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 8840 3034 8850 3034 8857 3037 8859
      3037 8860 3036 8862 3037 8863 3034 8874
      3038 8880 3038 8882 3039 8879 3043 8887
      3067 8888 3067 8886 3057 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 206DEG 5KT 3047 8847

CAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MSZ070-071-051915-
PIKE MS-WALTHALL MS-
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 128 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SUMMIT...OR NEAR MCCOMB...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED QUICKLY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOMB...SUMMIT...TYLERTOWN AND SALEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 9008 3134 9004 3124 9004 3123 9003
      3118 9003 3117 9001 3109 9001 3122 9054
      3135 9055 3135 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 278DEG 15KT 3134 9051

CAB

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