Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANTICIPATED...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO DECAY. TIMED THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE
INTO KBPT...KLCH...AND KAEX AS JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN. NO EFFECTS CARRIED AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL IMPROVE THE
VISIBILITY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT DID SHOW THE FOG RE-
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW ONCE THE
FOG ERODES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-191145-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
642 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LAST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE DELAYED THIS MORNING DUE TO A HEAVILY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WITH THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING OVER AN
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN DRAINAGE AREAS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS DRYING OUT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT PUTTING
AND END TO THE HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT
RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE
WEEK REMAINS FAIR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

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