Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-181000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
449 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TODAY.
SOME FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EARLY THIS
MORNING...NO WIDESPREAD WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY OCCUR. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
FORECASTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

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