Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE SW LA/SE TX COAST. THIS
LOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COAST...IS
PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACRS SRN LA AND SE TX AS WELL
AS THE NW GULF. SCTD TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ACRS S CNTL LA SOME STORMS COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS AS THEY MOVE
INLAND FM THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME OF
THE STORMS WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
SYSTEM...COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
AND WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONE FCST.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
ANCHORED OUT OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF CAMERON. CONSIDERING THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, EXPECTING VARIABLE IFR TO
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON TSTMS AND MVFR. ACTIVITY
ENDS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER
DARK. LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS/VIS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS MAIN FEATURE WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
OVER SE TX/NW GULF. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MCS FOR THE MOST PART
OFFSHORE SINCE SUN EVENING...WITH A LARGE 20+ INCH SWATH INDICATED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FORTUNATELY...LIMITED ACTIVITY INLAND...BUT
SHRA/TSRA IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND N AND E ACROSS SW LA. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH OVC AND THE RAIN EXPECTED...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE ENHANCED LIFT TO MOVE FURTHER N AND E
AS THE UPPER LOW AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS NE OVER LA. THIS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED
FOR TUE. DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY WED AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES NE...AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ITS WAKE.

BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND...A PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH PREDOMINATE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILDING SFC HIGH
FROM CANADA TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD...WITH A TASTE
OF FALL WX EXPECTED BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY.
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST...DIMINISHING
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH FOR MID-
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ADVANCES EAST...AND FAIR
WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  69  86  68 /  60  40  40  20
LCH  82  71  85  70 /  70  60  40  20
LFT  84  71  85  70 /  80  70  50  20
BPT  81  70  84  71 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-291200-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
315 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MEANDERS
OVER THE REGION. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AS THE LOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE OVER THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

LAZ043-044-052-281445-
ACADIA LA-VERMILION LA-LAFAYETTE LA-
850 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL VERMILION...SOUTH
CENTRAL ACADIA AND SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE PARISHES UNTIL 945 AM
CDT...

AT 848 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED NEAR WRIGHT...OR
NEAR KAPLAN...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KAPLAN...MORSE...LYONS POINT...INDIAN BAYOU AND WRIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9223 2987 9243 3012 9250 3014 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1348Z 172DEG 15KT 2994 9237

K. KUYPER