Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Lake Charles, LA

220 
WWUS54 KLCH 191034
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

LAC023-191042-
/O.EXP.KLCH.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-150819T1030Z/
CAMERON LA-
534 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH
HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A SPECIAL WEATHER 
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE PREVIOUSLY WARNED 
AREA...AND FARTHER NORTH INTO CALCASIEU PARISH...AS THE 
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP 
TO 40 MPH. 

LAT...LON 2970 9384 3005 9360 3005 9343 2999 9333
      2993 9335 2986 9335 2988 9340 2986 9344
      2985 9341 2977 9345 2974 9375 2971 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 218DEG 42KT 2971 9368 

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST KLCH RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN
COASTAL ZONES AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES FM THE SW. THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE TAIL END OF A TROF THAT EXTENDS FM THE
UPR MIDWEST SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRES EAST OF THE AREA WAS MAINTAINING SLY FLOW...SUPPLYING THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED NW OF
THE REGION...EXTENDING FM SW MO ACRS OK INTO NW TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE NMRS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN ZONES BY MIDDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTN AS THE
DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF TO THE NE. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE
FAIRLY HEALTHY...RUNNING CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR OR BETWEEN 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION FROM STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL...AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 OR POSSIBLY 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS AREA IS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR
STORMS ON THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND SCTD TO NMRS SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE LIMITED AND AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING...RAIN CHCS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COOL FRONT TO THE NW AND
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA ALOFT. AGAIN...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHCS WILL BE TO TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND HIGH PRES RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS WEST
ACRS THE GULF. WITH RAIN CHCS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AFTN HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP CHCS REMAINING NEAR MID AUGUST NORMALS AND TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING ACRS THE NRN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MDT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS. RAIN CHCS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
LIGHTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  75  89  74 /  50  50  60  20
LCH  89  77  91  77 /  50  50  60  30
LFT  89  77  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
BPT  90  77  90  76 /  50  50  60  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...24