Alert archive / Louisiana / River Flood Watches in 2015

River Flood Watch 21, NWS Lake Charles, LA

April 17, 2015Lafayette Parish, Saint Landry Parish, Saint Martin Parish, Louisiana

NWS Lake Charles, LA issued this river flood watch at Apr 17, 2015, 8:56 AM CDT for Lafayette Parish, Saint Landry Parish, Saint Martin Parish, Louisiana. It took effect at Apr 18, 2015, 2:14 PM CDT. It was in force for 7 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 17, 2015, 8:56 AM CDT (13:56 UTC)
In effect from: Apr 18, 2015, 2:14 PM CDT
Expired: Apr 25, 2015, 2:14 PM CDT
In force: 7 days
Issued by: NWS Lake Charles, LA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Lafayette Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA

The radar

The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Bayou Vermilion near Carencro (BVCL1). The gauge peaked at 16.00 ft at Apr 18, 2015, 5:00 PM CDT.

Action stage: 15 ft
Minor stage: 17 ft
Moderate stage: 19.5 ft
Major stage: 21.5 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07386600, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood watch went out at Apr 17, 6:16 AM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 17, 6:16 AM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 17, 4:49 AM CDT, 4 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-181000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
449 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TODAY.
SOME FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EARLY THIS
MORNING...NO WIDESPREAD WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY OCCUR. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
FORECASTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 17, 8:24 AM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
824 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 21 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.44N 92.97W
04/16/2015  E50 MPH          GMZ452             LA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 46.

&&

MOGGED

Local storm report, Apr 17, 8:30 AM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 17 ESE FRESHWATER CITY  29.44N 92.06W
04/16/2015  M44 MPH          GMZ455             LA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.

&&

MOGGED

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lake Charles, LA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 16, 7:15 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	LCH		90 min
Apr 16, 8:26 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	LCH		49 min
Apr 16, 8:30 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	LCH		2 hr
Apr 16, 9:06 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	LCH		39 min
Apr 17, 7:51 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LCH	Acadia, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion	6 days
Apr 17, 7:51 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LCH	Acadia, Jefferson Davis, Rapides, Vermilion	11 days
Apr 16, 7:00 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LCH	Hardin, Jefferson	3 hr
Apr 16, 7:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LCH	Jefferson, Orange	40 min
Apr 16, 8:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LCH	Orange	57 min
Apr 16, 9:59 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LCH	Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange	3 hr
Apr 17, 2:39 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LCH	Hardin, Jefferson	9 days
Apr 17, 10:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LCH	Jefferson, Orange	9 days

Nearby

River Flood Watches in Louisiana, 2015 Every river flood watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.