River Flood Warning 43, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT FCSTS IRON THAT OUT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  60  66  50 /  80  90  30  10
LCH  80  66  72  53 /  80  60  20  10
LFT  80  67  73  53 /  80  70  20  10
BPT  80  66  72  52 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
602 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
281115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
602 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ON ITS PRESENT SPEED...THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
LINE WILL REACH THE SABINE RIVER AROUND 630 AM...THE LAKE CHARLES
AREA BY 700 AM...ALEXANDRIA BY 730 AM...AND THE LAFAYETTE AREA BY
8 AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...POSING ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND A
CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-281115-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
602 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSING ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT A
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS ISSUED.

13

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