River Flood Warning 107, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
911 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR TOR WATCH 545 UNTIL 4 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TODAY. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINS AND VERY STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW CLOUDS (CEILINGS HOVERING AROUND IFR/MVFR)
AND STREAMER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...LIFT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT
SQUALL LINE FEATURE TO REACH KBPT AROUND 17/18Z...KLCH/KAEX AROUND
17/20Z...KLFT/KARA AROUND 17/23Z. STRONG..GUSTY...AND SHIFTING
WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SHOWERS END...CEILINGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY
FROM MVFR TO VFR.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
PUSHING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AND BROAD UPPER TROF
DRIVING THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE PRIMED FOR SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE INITIAL LINE OF INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PULSES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LINES...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE TSTMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH TIDES UP TO
TWO FEET HIGHER THAN PREDICTED...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO
IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE RISING ALL THAT MUCH ABOVE
CURRENTLY UNSEASONABLY HIGH VALUES. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TODAY.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. DRIER
AIR WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE WITH A DELAY OF THE COOLER AIR UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. CHOSE TO STAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MINS TNITE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FELT FRIDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOWER
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER...SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WINDS WILL SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS WELL AS THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT...EXTENDING THROUGH THIS EVENING OFF THE COAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY UP TO FIVE INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  58  69  48 / 100  90  10   0
LCH  77  61  72  52 / 100  90  10   0
LFT  78  64  71  51 /  90 100  20   0
BPT  75  58  72  53 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ052>055-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027-030-041-073.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

&&

PUBLIC...19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
541 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262-181145-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
541 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF LINES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INCLUDES CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITHIN AN AREA FOR AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS...LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 5 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COOLER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-181145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
541 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BECOMING WESTERLY
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ALSO TIDES WILL
RUN UP TO TWO FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SWEENEY