Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS North Platte, NE

134 
WWUS53 KLBF 170155
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
855 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NEC111-170205-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150617T0200Z/
LINCOLN NE-
855 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. 

LAT...LON 4108 10066 4093 10064 4098 10104 4116 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 281DEG 19KT 4101 10065

$$

ROBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AT 20Z...ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A PAIR OF LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGES WERE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE
HELPING TO KEEP GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
UP THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOSER TO THE CWA AND AT SFC...STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE LOW IN EASTERN
WYO WAS PULLING THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH
LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD
COVER LEFT OVER FROM MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS HAS BEEN BREAKING UP
OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST NEB INTO PART
OF THE PANHANDLE. WHERE SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED TEMPS HAVE HAD NO
PROBLEM QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS HELD FIRM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY. MOST HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON FURTHER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER....AS WELL AS ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST SD.
BREAK UP IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR AND WEAKENING OF LOCALIZED CIN. SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...40+ KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORM MODES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HWY 61 CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER STORM
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY MERGE TOWARD LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME A DIMINISHING WIND THREAT AS THEY TRACK EAST INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND STALLS OUT JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AS IT IS OUTRUN BY THE UPPER LEVEL PV. EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WAKE WILL KEEP 55-60F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE SANDHILLS REGION. NEXT DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CI WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE CWA AROUND OR AFTER
00Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE THE BASIC IDEA OF
FIRING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING HOWEVER
THE LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION VARIES IN EACH SOLN. THE NAM SENDS
TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...MCSS...THROUGH LINCOLN COUNTY
WHILE THE GFS FAVORS CHASE COUNTY AND THEN NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
GEM FAVORS NCNTL NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ECM IS LIKE THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY THIS RESULT OF MINOR
DIFFERENCES OF THE LOCATIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATIONS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING SUCH AS RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

SO THE FCST IS CARRYING A 20 TO 30 POP AS THE SPREAD OF MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS A WIDE RANGE OF AREAL POSSIBILITY. ANYTHING THAT FORMS
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS COULD BE SEVERE AS K INDICES SOAR INTO THE
40S AND AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER VALUES OF PWAT BUT THIS IS OCCURRING DURING
DEEP CONVECTION.

STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FUELED BY RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF STRONG 300 MB WINDS. SOUTHWARD DIPS
IN THIS BELT OF 50 TO 65 KT WINDS WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR.
IN GENERAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE MORE A RESULT
OF OUTFLOW WHILE SFC BASED STORM EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTN. STORM MOTION FOR BOTH SYSTEMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST WITH A TURN
TO THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. THE MODELS NOW SIGNAL A STRONG CAP OF 14C-16C
AT 700MB AND DEEPER MIXING FARTHER NORTH. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN RAISED TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 90S
SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS MID 90S DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A
RESULT OF THIS DEEP MIXING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FRIDAY BUT THE WIND FORECAST SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT VERTICAL
MIXING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS THURSDAY RISE INTO THE 80S TO NEAR
90.

THE STRONG CAP IN THE MODELS FRIDAY WOULD PRODUCE JUST AN ISOLATED
CHANCE ACROSS BOYD COUNTY. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE TRAVERSING SD WHICH
COULD DIP SOUTH AND BRUSH THIS AREA EITHER DURING THE MORNING OR
DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A BELT OF STRONG 300 MB WINDS OF 50
KT OR GREATER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND OCCASIONALLY DIP
SOUTH INTO NEB. THE MODELS SHOW THIS HAPPENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT ONLY THE ECM IS ABLE TO CARRY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH
TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE FAVORS IOWA. NO
OTHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM AIR SHOULD RETURN MONDAY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECM SHOW HIGHS IN
THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE FCST IS LOWER 90S IN
THIS AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SOUTH WINDS. THE ECM AND
GFS SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 17C-20C WITH H10-5 THICKNESS
587-591DM MONDAY. IF THE DEW POINTS MIX OUT...HIGHS COULD BE IN THE
UPPER 90S OR WARMER.

AFTER MONDAY THE GFS AND ECM MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECM BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE ECM AND SHOW LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S. IF NO RAIN
MATERIALIZES SUNDAY THEN 80S WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TSRA
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS IN SERN CHERRY AND BETWEEN OGA
AND LBF ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR 5SM TSRA AT KLBF TIL 02Z AND AT KVTN FTER 02Z. ALL
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE KEPT MENTION IN THE KVTN TAF...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND UPDATED AS NEW FORECAST INFO BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 /245 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
732 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             1 W SUTHERLAND          41.16N 101.15W
06/16/2015  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MOLDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
738 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             8 N ELSIE               40.96N 101.39W
06/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
743 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TORNADO          12 W NORTH PLATTE       41.13N 101.00W
06/16/2015                   LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF ROPE TORNADO DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUTHERLAND              41.16N 101.13W
06/16/2015  M1.70 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            1.70 INCHES OF RAIN IN APPROXIMATELY 1 HOUR.

&&

MOLDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
751 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             21 W BROWNLEE           42.29N 101.04W
06/16/2015  M1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

0610 PM     HAIL             BROWNLEE                42.29N 100.62W
06/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

0631 PM     HAIL             4 ESE BROWNLEE          42.27N 100.55W
06/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

0645 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW BROWNLEE           42.36N 100.72W
06/16/2015  M1.90 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING OF 1.90 INCHES,
            AND STILL RAINING.

0700 PM     HAIL             2 NE SUTHERLAND         41.18N 101.10W
06/16/2015  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

0720 PM     HAIL             24 NW THEDFORD          42.22N 100.91W
06/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

0731 PM     HAIL             1 W SUTHERLAND          41.16N 101.15W
06/16/2015  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM     HAIL             8 N ELSIE               40.96N 101.39W
06/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

0740 PM     TORNADO          12 W NORTH PLATTE       41.13N 101.00W
06/16/2015                   LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF ROPE TORNADO DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED

0742 PM     HEAVY RAIN       12 NNE THEDFORD         42.14N 100.49W
06/16/2015  M2.60 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 15 TO 20 MINUTES.

0747 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUTHERLAND              41.16N 101.13W
06/16/2015  M1.70 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            1.70 INCHES OF RAIN IN APPROXIMATELY 1 HOUR.

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
756 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             PURDUM                  42.07N 100.26W
06/16/2015  M1.00 INCH       BLAINE             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED VIA TALOR WARNING POINT. GROUND WAS
            COVERED WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL. MODERATE RAINFALL.

&&

MOLDAN