Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS North Platte, NE

870 
WWUS53 KLBF 262025
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
225 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NEC161-262100-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-150726T2100Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
225 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...

AT 224 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES EAST OF
WILD HORSE BUTTE...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
DIAMOND LAKE...WOLF HILL...ARGO HILL AND SMITH LAKE STATE WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
NORTH PLATTE .

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4225 10214 4222 10252 4224 10260 4234 10265
      4262 10237 4227 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 229DEG 22KT 4234 10255 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JACOBS

894 
WWUS53 KLBF 262045
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
245 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NEC161-262054-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-150726T2100Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
245 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH PLATTE .

LAT...LON 4225 10214 4222 10252 4224 10260 4234 10265
      4262 10237 4227 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 229DEG 22KT 4242 10242 

$$

JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWS A WEAK TEMPERATURE AND
PRESSURE FIELD AROUND THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND. THERE IS A
TROUGH WITH A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT. ALSO...RADAR
SHOWS A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE STRENGTH OF
THE THETA-E RIDGE ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE WIND AND THETA-E FIELDS IN THE 0-2KM AGL
LAYER INDICATE CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY
CONGEAL EVENTUALLY INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN
THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG THE ECMWF...THE
CANADIAN...THE GFS AND THE NAM SO OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
FOLLOWING SCENARIO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
THETA-E GRADIENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WILL THEN BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. INITIALLY THE
INSTABILITTY AND 0-6KM AGL BULK SHEAR APPEARS TO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL...BUT AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BECOMES
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE WEEK AHEAD WIL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BY
MID WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO A SUMMERTIME PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY STARTS WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW.
AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TEMPS AT THE H5 LEVEL EXCEED -3SD
ACCORDING TO GEFS AND HEIGHTS EXCEEDING -2SD. RETURN INTERVALS FOR
THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF EVERY 5 TO 10 YEARS
SO AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP IN WRN ND/SE MT. THE RESPONSE FURTHER
SOUTH WILL BE AN INCREASING SRLY WINDS SERVING TO TRANSPORT
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MUCH DEEPER BL LEADING TO MINIMAL
CAPE AND LOWER DEW POINTS BY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND DEVELOPS A MORE SHALLOW BL AND SFC DEW POINTS HIGHER. THE NAM
THEREFORE HAS A MORE DEFINITIVE SFC TD GRADIENT LOCATED ACROSS NERN
CO AND INTO SWRN NEB...SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INIT LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER TD GRADIENT AND HAS
WEAKER AND PERCEIVED MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
THIS SETUP WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MECHANICAL MIXING DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER SYSTEM WOULD THINK THE SOLUTION WOULD LIE SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE BUT NOT AS DEEPLY MIXED AS GFS WOULD SUGGEST. EITHER
WAY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DRY AIR SHOULD TEMPER POTENTIAL
UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT CONVECTION TO ISOLD. TEMPS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND
ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING BUT A GOOD THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AND MAY SEE A FEW 100S MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM SW INTO PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS...THOUGH FOR NOW THE FCST
HAS MAINLY MID AND UPPER 90S.

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA BY MID
MORNING TUESDAY. OF SIGNIFICANCE TUESDAY WILL BE THE MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM WOULD SUGGEST DEW POINTS IN
THE 30S MAY BE COMMON AS STRONG CAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY
BELOW AVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING EARLY IN THE DAY AND THE DRIER
AIRMASS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE INHIBITED. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AS WELL WHICH MEANS MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL
BE COOLER THAN IN THE HUMID AIRMASS OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF
THE WEEK.

AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WRN
STATES AGAIN...PUTTING THE REGION IN BROAD NW FLOW WHICH ISN/T
CONDUCIVE TO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS. THE STRONG CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DRIVE IT WELL SOUTH INTO OK AND THE
TX PANHANDLES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
WILL ROUND THE WRN STATES RIDGE AND ONCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE
TO RETURN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT ON TIMING AND LOCATION IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE 18Z AVIATION
FORECAST. THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING FORECAST MODELS AND
SHORT TERM DETERMINISTICS ARE STRUGGLING ON COMING TO A CONSENSUS OF
WHAT IMPACTS FROM ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF NOW...TWO AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST OFF THE PANHANDLE OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WE
ANTICIPATED THE CONVECTION OFF THE PANHANDLE TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AND WORK EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATER COVERAGE. WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...JACOBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-271930-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 /119 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND NORTH
WEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN
THIS AREA MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE TO ONEILL LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONT. THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL
SANDHILLS.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

JACOBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
144 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NEZ004-094-262030-
SHERIDAN NE-WESTERN CHERRY NE-
144 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

AT 144 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GORDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IRWIN...INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 20 AND IRWIN ROAD...GORDON...ROCK
HILL...BAYONNE AND HIGHWAY 61 CROSSING THE NIOBRARA RIVER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 134.
 HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 214 AND 222.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4298 10176 4279 10163 4264 10212 4264 10214
      4279 10225 4299 10187 4300 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 241DEG 19KT 4276 10211

JACOBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
145 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NEZ022-262030-
GARDEN NE-
145 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

AT 145 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES WEST OF CRESCENT LAKE NWR...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSHKOSH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESCENT LAKE NWR...BRITTON LAKE...RICHARDSON LAKE...DEER LAKE...
MUMPER...ADAMS FLATS AND RACKETT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4198 10231 4162 10214 4161 10264 4174 10264
      4174 10266 4175 10267 4177 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 241DEG 18KT 4170 10262

JACOBS