Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS North Platte, NE

512 
WWUS53 KLBF 200125
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
725 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NEC103-200145-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-150720T0145Z/
KEYA PAHA NE-
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL KEYA
PAHA COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
SPRINGVIEW...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURTON...MILLS AND NETS PEAK.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH
PLATTE.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4297 9934 4296 9934 4287 9937 4277 9939
      4277 9941 4276 9944 4281 9988 4300 9993
      4300 9933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 276DEG 24KT 4289 9970

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES
ADDING MOISTURE TO THE MONSOON OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. SFC STALLED
BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS MISSOURI/KANSAS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
IN COLORADO. ALSO ANALYZING A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN S DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE ARE TWO FOCUS POINTS
OF INTEREST TONIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THIS TRACK RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM YESTERDAY AND WILL IMPACT MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN NEB. A COUPLE STORMS ALREADY FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN CO. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE...BECOMING SCT
TO POSSIBLY A BROKEN LINE AS IT DRIFTS EAST. CAPE VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. MEANWHILE THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE THE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH. MOISTURE LIMITED THIS EVENING
INITIALLY WITH DEW PTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THOSE UP TO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. SHEAR IS A LITTLE
WEAKER AND SEVERE THREAT NOT AS HIGH AS TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH
STILL MARGINAL.

STORMS ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND EXIT THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
CLEARING BEHIND THE STORMS...TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
50S OUT WEST...WHILE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS
LAST TO DEPART. TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STALLED BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR...MID AND UPPER 80S WITH MAYBE A LOW 90 ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS WE SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER COUNTRY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MID AND LONG TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER SIOUX FALLS. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING. HAVE RETAINED SCHC POPS OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND CARRIED THEM INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHER CHANCES AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVE EAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RETAINED PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG NEBRASKA KANSAS
BORDER AND WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 80S. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEAT RETURNS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. STRONGER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

FCST CHALLENGE AGAIN DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...THEN FRONTAL PASSGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TSRA
ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SW NEB FORCED PRIMAILY FROM WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KS AND UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE...AIDED BY A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING NEWD ACROSS CO. DEEP
MOIST CONVECTIVE IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS WRN KS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND
WITH DEEPER BL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WOULD EXPECT TSRA IN THIS
REGION TO GROW UPSCALE...THOUGH PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE KLBF TAF
SITE. STORMS ARE SPLITTING ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
DIFFERENT MOTION VECTORS FOR EACH ORGANIZED UPDRAFT. THE CAVEAT TO
THIS IS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND CURRENT
TSRA MAY BE ALONG A LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT.
REGARDLESS...TSRA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE NEWD FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING BEFORE LARGER CLUSTER TAKES OVER FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS.

FURTHER N...MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO WRN SD ATTM. A WEAKER
SFC FEATURE MAY BE EVIDENT ACROSS SC SD JUST NORTH OF KVTN. LARGER
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY SHOULD BE ABLE TO FOCUS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO NW NEB LATE EVENING. FCST INCLUDES THIS POTENTIAL FOR
THE KVTN AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER CONVECTION CLEARS THE
AREA...PRIMARILY AFTER 07Z OR SO SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 /231 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.
EARLY TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP LATER ON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EARLY TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE LINE WHERE DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THERE IS MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST ORGANIZED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH THROUGH NORTH PLATTE.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
603 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NEZ035-057-192345-
ARTHUR NE-KEITH NE-
503 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ARTHUR AND KEITH
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 458 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OGALLALA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROSCOE...
  KEYSTONE...
  KINGSLEY DAM...
  BROGANVILLE...
  NEVENS...
  BIG BALD HILL...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 135.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND 107.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 138.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING. IF ON OR NEAR LAKE MCCONAUGHY...GET AWAY
FROM THE WATER AND MOVE TO SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

STOPPKOTTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NEZ006-200130-
KEYA PAHA NE-
752 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 750 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF SPARKS...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SPRINGVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BURTON...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 225.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

JACOBS