Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS North Platte, NE

072 
WWUS53 KLBF 180022
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NEC031-091-171-180045-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-150718T0045Z/
HOOKER NE-THOMAS NE-CHERRY NE-
622 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
CHERRY...WESTERN THOMAS AND EASTERN HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
MDT/745 PM CDT/...

AT 619 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF SENECA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SENECA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THEDFORD...SENECA...BROWNLEE...NORWAY...HIGHWAY 83 CROSSING THE NORTH
LOUP RIVER...HIGHWAY 83 CROSSING THE DISMAL RIVER AND HIGHWAY 83
CROSSING GOOSE CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 186.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 213.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4174 10050 4174 10102 4188 10125 4225 10127
      4251 10102 4251 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 263DEG 41KT 4223 10084 4195 10087

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID
90S TO NEAR 100 WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST.
MEANWHILE A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO SW NEB...WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED IN S DAKOTA AND IS WHERE THE BEST SHEAR IS
LOCATED...HOWEVER STILL DECENT INTO NORTHERN NEBR WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH STORMS /WHICH HAVE ALREADY FIRED TO THE
WEST/ WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
AND LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION IS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICKLY AT 20 PLUS MPH.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE SUBTLE WAVE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON COVERAGE WHICH LEADS TO
A LOWER CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. SHEAR NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS FURTHER
NORTH...STILL 25 TO 35 KTS. MODELS HAVE CAPE VALUES AT 1000 TO 1500
J/KG SO SOME ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST WITH STORMS LAST TO
EXIT NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MORNING. LOWS COOLEST /UPPER 50S/ IN THE
WEST WHERE CLEARING WILL DEVELOP FIRST WHILE LOWER TO MID 60S
BENEATH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 80S. MODELS
DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON TO REMAIN DRY FOR OUR CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STALLED FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY TO
LOCATION OF NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND MODELS HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE
GEM IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC FRONT
IN KS...WHILE OTHER MAIN MODELS DEVELOP TSRA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE AREA CLOSER TO THE NEXT PV ANOMALY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT WHICH SAGS SWD INTO WY SAT NIGHT. ASSUMING THERE IS ONLY
SUBTLE WAVES AVAILABLE TO INTERACT DIRECTLY TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SFC FRONT...AND INSUFFICIENT FOR DEEP...MOIST
CONVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS MOST
FAVORABLE DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING TO FOCUS DEVLOPMENT ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BETTER ASSOCIATED SHEAR. ANY STORMS WOULD
THEN MOVE INTO THE WRN AND SOUTHERN FCST AREA SAT NIGHT.  IN THIS
SCENARIO THE SRN AND WRN ZONES WOULD BE FAVORED AS HIGHEST CHANCES
AND THE FCST WAS TAILORED THAT WAY. MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER UPPER SUPPORT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO EVEN WITH BETTER
THERMODYNAMIC POTENTIAL POSP SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WOULD BE COOLER ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUD
COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WOULD LINGER.

MON-THU...ON THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE...AS ONE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE
EXISTING RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW
ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPENS IN THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE RESPONSE IS TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM
NEAR 140W TO NEAR 160W. THIS ALLOWS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LOW TO MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE PAC NW. THIS IN
TURN WILL SHIFT THE REMNANTS OF TS DOLORES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH DOLORES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND MIXING
RATIOS ON THE 320K SFC...WILL ALSO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TUES INTO WED. ALTHOUGH MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH DETAILS...ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER UPPER
FORCING POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP. ALSO...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY LATE TUES AND WED THANKS TO THE INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL DRY THE LOW
LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY /MODELS SUGGESTING U30S TO L40S DEW POINTS/ BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TUES INTO WED AS RETURN
SRLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ON MONDAY DESPITE EARLY
FRONTAL PASSAGE THANKS TO A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...COOLING FOR
TUEASDAY AND WED...THEN RETURNING TO ABOVE AVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH FORMS IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT CLEARING THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z.

THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND COLD AIR
STRATUS FORMING ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB 06Z-15Z. BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF SO WE WILL WAIT A BIT ON INCORPORATING THIS
INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-182045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 /232 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH IN GARDEN COUNTY
THROUGH BROKEN BOW IN CUSTER COUNTY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             1 S SUTHERLAND          41.14N 101.13W
07/17/2015  E2.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            SUTHERLAND AND I80

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             2 W WHITMAN             42.04N 101.58W
07/17/2015  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              NE   PUBLIC

            50 MPH WINDS

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             8 WSW CALLAWAY          41.25N 100.06W
07/17/2015  E0.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             51 W BROWNLEE           42.29N 101.62W
07/17/2015  M1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             3 NE HERSHEY            41.19N 100.96W
07/17/2015  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 SW MULLEN            41.87N 101.28W
07/17/2015  E60 MPH          HOOKER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MARTIN