Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
333 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED NORTH OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXTEND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS INTO OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CURRENTLY SINKING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO COLLIER COUNTY. LOCAL WINDS ARE
SOUTH...MODERATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH OCCASIONAL LULLS AND SURGES.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF CHANGES WILL BE MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE PUSHED OUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO CATEGORICAL...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. A NUMBER OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...AND THE DRIVING FORCE
PULLING A FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF...WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST TODAY TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BUT TIMING A MORE PRONOUNCED DRIVE OF NORTHWESTERLIES IS HARD TO PIN
AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE IMMEDIATE AND SHORT TERM WIND FIELDS. DID PUT
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN FOR TODAY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER CONVERAGE
EXPECTED AND GOOD MIXING OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM WINDS. THE OTHER
SENSIBLE GRIDDED SENSIBLE ELEMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN ADJUSTED EITHER IN
THE NEAR TERM...OR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT A DIMINISHING
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL PUSHES EASTWARD. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO ANY OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FROM THE MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. INITIALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING ALL MARINE ZONES. BUT THE CONCERN RELIES
SIGNIFICANTLY UPON FREQUENT GUSTS FROM THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE LARGER RAIN AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS STOUT WITH THE WINDS AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO HIGHER THAN THEIR GRAPHICAL RESULTS DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANYTHING...IT
WOULD BE AN ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH THE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. PUT THE GRIDDED HAZARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD SETTLE BEFORE A MORE DEFINED
NORTHWEST PUSH EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLOCK THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY...AND
THEN NORTHEAST/EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 11Z THIS MORNING AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON TERMINALS. AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ENHANCING GOOD JET
DYNAMICS AND VENTILATION OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE KEYS AROUND SUNRISE. A
BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER SQUALL LINE EVENT IN THE MORNING AS THE
INITIAL LINE PASSES OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND 11Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS WILL LINE UP WITH THE RUNWAY AND WE EXPECT NO CROSSWIND
IMPACTS. SMALL AIRCRAFT MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THE TAIL AND HEAD WIND
EFFECTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1941...6.04 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON APRIL
29TH. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING 74 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  77  84  74 / 80 50 40 30
MARATHON  87  77  84  74 / 80 50 40 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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